000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201008
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Nov 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front will come off the coast of Texas tonight and reach
the central Gulf of Mexico by Tue afternoon. Strong high pressure will
build in the Great Basin with associated ridge extending to and
across the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the front.
Very strong northerly winds behind the front will funnel through
the Chivela Pass and lead to the next gale force Tehuantepec gap
wind event forecast to begin by Tue evening and continue through
Wed night. Seas within this period will be in the 8 to 14 ft
range. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 10N110W to low press
near 09N117W to 07N125W. The ITCZ continues from 07N125W to 
05N134W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across
the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters, and from 03N to 10N
between 120W and 134W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 06N to 13N between 103W and 125W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered over
Washington and Oregon, and lower pressure along Mexico supports  
moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja California Peninsula 
offshore waters as well as in the Gulf of California. Seas are 5
to 9 ft off the Baja Peninsula, highest N of Punta Eugenia. In 
the Gulf of California, seas are in the 1 to 4 ft range, highest
at the entrance of the gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 5
ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds W of Baja 
California will continue through today and the NW swell will
subside tonight. However, strong to near gale force winds
funneling along the Gulf of California today will bleed through
the Baja mountain gaps and lead to fresh to strong NE winds and
seas to 9 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed morning. The 
entire Gulf of California can expect strong NW winds today  
through Wed, along with rough seas. The next gale-force gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Tue 
evening and continue through Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are found N of 10N, with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail over the 
discussion waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
10N through Tue night. Moderate southwest winds offshore Costa 
Rica will diminish this evening under a weak pressure pattern. 
Swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event
may enter the waters well offshore western Guatemala late Wed 
through early Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure of 1009 mb (Invest EP94) is embedded within the 
monsoon trough near 09N118W. Fresh to locally strong winds are 
found in the vicinity of the low, with seas to 10 ft according to
recent altimeter data. Some slow development of this system is 
possible during the next couple of days while it drifts westward 
or northwestward. By the middle and latter parts of the week, 
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive 
for development.

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 18N128W to 09N129W. 
Fresh NNE winds and seas to 9 ft are found within 120 nm N of 
the trough axis. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the 
monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, the fresh NE trade winds will gradually 
diminish Mon. A new set of northerly swell will propagate through
the waters north of 24N and east of 129W today. Seas will 
gradually subside through mid-week. A weakening cold front will 
approach 30N140W this evening. Northwest swell with this front 
will move into the far northwest waters starting tonight.

$$
Ramos