000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190401
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Nov 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0340 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to
1009 mb low pressure near 10N116W (Invest EP94) to 06N128W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N128W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 77W and 90W, and from
04N to 12N between 111W and 127W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging is offshore central Baja California.
Northwest winds in the southern half of the Gulf of California
are blowing at moderate speeds. Seas of 4-6 ft are across this 
part of the Gulf. In the northern half of the Gulf, gentle
northwest winds prevail along with seas of 1-3 ft. Strong 
northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 14N, 
where seas are 6-8 ft. Fresh NW to NNW winds are present within 
180 nm west of the coast of Baja California Sur. Mainly gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft west of Baja California 
and 4-6 ft over the offshore waters between Jalisco and Guerrero.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will continue through tonight before diminishing 
early Sun. The entire Gulf of California can expect strong 
northwest to north-northwest winds early Mon morning through Tue,
along with rough seas. Fresh NW to N winds west of Baja 
California will increase further to fresh to strong tonight
through Sun night. Large northwest swell will enter the waters 
west of Baja California Sun night into Mon. Looking ahead, the 
next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is 
possible late Tue night through Wed night. On Thu and Thu night,
the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap winds gradually diminish to strong.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southwest winds are likely occurring offshore of Costa 
Rica. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or weaker. Most areas are
experiencing seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
10N through Tue night. Moderate southwest winds will continue 
offshore Costa Rica through Sun. Winds will diminish Sun night 
into early next week under a weak pressure pattern.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure of 1009 mb (Invest EP94) is centered along the 
monsoon trough near 10N116W. Satellite imagery shows disorganized
scattered moderate convection from 04N to 12N between 111W and 
122W. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are associated 
with the low. Significant development of this system is unlikely 
while it moves slowly westward during the next few days. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive 
for development by the middle of next week.

A persistent surface trough extends from 22N118W to 14N123W.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas to 8 ft are found 
within 150 nm west of the trough axis. Moderate to fresh 
southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough from about 04N 
to 08N between 85W-89W and between 98W-105W. Seas of 7-9 ft are 
with these winds due to mixed south and northwest swell.
Elsewhere, seas are generally 7 to 8 ft south of 15N. Seas are 6
to 7 ft north of 20N.

For the forecast, the northwest to north swell south of 15N will 
subside tonight. Northeast trade winds will increase to fresh 
late tonight through Sun night across the entire area north of 
the monsoon trough/ITCZ as high pressure builds back across the 
region. Winds will diminish late Mon. A new set of large 
northerly swell will begin to propagate through the waters north 
of 24N and east of 130W on Mon. It will gradually decay going 
into mid-week. A cold front is expected to approach the far 
northwest corner of the area late on Mon, but is expected to be 
weakening as it does. Northwest swell associated with this front 
may encroach into the far northwest waters starting Mon 
afternoon. 

$$
Hagen