000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182218 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 18 2023

Corrected Remainder of the area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the far southwestern
Caribbean Sea near 10N79W westward across southern Costa Rica, 
and to 09N93W to 09N106W to low pressure near 10N116W 1009 mb to
05N129W, where scatterometer data indicates that it transitions
to the ITCZ to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
180 nm south of the trough between 83W-86W, also within 60 nm 
south of the trough between 97W-101W and between 121W-125W.
Similar activity is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 
129W-135W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging is offshore central Baja California. A
recent ASCAT data pass reveals that northwest to north winds in 
the southern half of the Gulf of California have become gentle 
to moderate, except for the southeast part of the southern half 
of the Gulf, where winds have become mostly light and variable. 
Seas of 4-6 ft are across this part of the Gulf. In the northern 
half of the Gulf, northwest winds have diminished to gentle to 
moderate along with seas of 2-4 ft. Fresh to strong northerly 
winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 14N, where seas are
5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh northwest winds are present 
within 120 nm west of the coast of Baja California Sur. Mainly 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft west of Baja 
California and 4-6 ft over the offshore waters between Jalisco 
and Guerrero.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will continue through tonight before diminishing 
early Sun. The entire Gulf of California can expect strong 
northwest to north-northwest winds early Mon morning through Tue,
along with rough seas. Fresh NW to N winds west of Baja 
California will increase further to fresh to strong Sun and Sun 
night. Large northwest swell will enter the waters west of Baja 
California Sun night into Mon. Looking ahead, the next gale-force
gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible Wed and 
Wed night of the upcoming week. On Thu and Thu night, the Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap winds diminish to strong. Also on Thu and Thu 
night, winds will be light to gentle south of Punta Eugenia and 
NW moderate to fresh north of Punta Eugenia.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh southwest winds are likely occurring offshore of Costa 
Rica. Seas range from 6-8 ft in this area. Elsewhere south of the
monsoon trough, moderate southwest winds are ongoing with seas 
of 5-7 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail north of 10N, along with
seas of 5-8 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
10N through the forecast period. Fresh southwest winds will 
continue offshore Costa Rica and western Panama through tonight. 
Winds will diminish Sun into early next week generally under a 
weak pressure pattern.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected 

Low pressure of 1009 mb is centered along the monsoon trough 
near 10N116W, or about 830 nm south-southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula. Satellite imagery shows 
increasing convection of scattered moderate to isolated strong 
type intensity within 180 nm of the low in the western 
semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is just east of the 
low from 09N to 11N between 113W-116W. Fresh to strong northeast 
winds are within 120 nm of the low in the NW quadrant, and 
moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere near the low. Seas may be 
peaking to around 10 or 11 ft near the low. Significant 
development of this system is not likely while it moves slowly 
westward during the next few days. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to become less conducive for development by the middle 
of next week.

A surface trough extends southwestward from near 30N123W to
27N125W and to 24N131W. Moderate west to northwest winds are
north of 28N between 121W-1251W. Recent altimeter data passes
reveal seas of 6-8 ft in long-period northwest to north swell 
north of 24N between 123W-130W. Slightly higher seas of 8-9 ft 
in northwest to north swell are south of 15N between 110W-140W
as also indicated by recent altimeter data passes. Elsewhere, a 
persistent surface trough extends from near 23N118W to 13N123W. 
Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are west of the trough
to near 129W as shown by a recent ASCAT data pass. Seas are 6-7
ft near the through. Fresh to strong southwest winds are south 
of the monsoon trough from about 05N to 08N between 85W-89W and 
between 98W-105W. Seas of 8-9 ft are with these winds due to
mixed south and northwest swell, with the 9 ft seas being 
confined between 98W-105W.

For the forecast, the northwest to north swell south of 15N will
subside through Sun. Northeast trade winds will increase to 
fresh late tonight through Sun night across the entire area north
of the monsoon trough/ITCZ as high pressure builds back across 
the region. Winds will diminish late Mon. A new set of large 
northerly swell will begin to propagate through the waters north
of 22N and east of 130W on Mon. It will gradually decay going 
into mid-week. A cold front is expected to approach the far 
northwest corner of the area late on Mon, but is expected to be 
weakening as it does. Northwest swell associated with this front 
may encroach into the far northwest waters starting Mon 
afternoon. 

$$
Aguirre