000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182129 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Nov 18 2023

Corrected Remainder of the Area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the far southwestern
Caribbean Sea near 10N80W westward across southern Costa Rica,
to 08N96W to 10N109W to low pressure near 10N116W 1009 mb to 
06N126W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
120 nm south of the trough between 120W-123W and between
131W-135W. Similar convection is within 60 nm of the trough 
between 84W-86W and between 123W-126W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging is offshore central Baja California. Fresh
to strong northwest winds are in the southern half of the Gulf 
of California. Seas of 5-7 ft are across this part of the Gulf. 
Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
north of 15N, where seas are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh 
northwest winds are likely occurring within 120 nm west of the 
coast of Baja California Sur. Mainly gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft west of Baja California as well as 
offshore between Jalisco and Guerrero. Seas are 1-2 ft in the 
northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds will continue in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight before diminishing early
Sun. Fresh northwest winds across the central and southern Gulf 
of California will continue through Sun before diminishing late 
Sun night. The entire Gulf of California can expect strong 
northwest to north-northwest winds early Mon morning through 
Tue, along with rough seas. West of Baja California, northwest to
north winds will increase to fresh this afternoon, then increase
further to fresh to strong Sun through Sun night. Large 
northwest swell will enter the waters west of Baja California Sun
night into Mon. Looking ahead, the next gale- force gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible during the middle of
next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh southwest winds are likely occurring offshore of Costa 
Rica. Seas range from 6-8 ft in this area. Elsewhere south of the
monsoon trough, moderate SW winds are ongoing with seas of 5-7 
ft. Light to gentle winds prevail north of 10N, along with seas 
of 5-8 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
10N through the forecast period. Fresh southwest winds will 
continue offshore Costa Rica and western Panama through tonight. 
Winds will diminish Sun into early next week under a weak 
pressure pattern.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected

Low pressure of 1009 mb is centered along the monsoon trough
near 10N116W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection within 120 nm of the low in the 
western semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of the low within 60 nm of line from 07N115W to 06N119W.
Fresh to strong winds are likely occurring with this low 
as the aforementioned convection has increased since the 
overnight hours and held steady since then. Seas may be peaking 
to around 10 or 11 ft near the low. Development, if any, of this 
system is expected to be slow to occur through the weekend while 
the disturbance moves slowly westward. By early next week, 
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive 
for further development. There is a low chance of tropical 
cyclone development within the next 48 hours.

A surface trough extends southwestward from near 30N126W to 
25N132W. Overnight ASCAT data reveals moderate to fresh west to 
northwest winds north of 27N between 121W-125W. Seas of 8-9 ft 
in long-period northwest to north swell are ongoing north of 26N 
between 124W-130W. Seas are also 8-9 ft in northwest to north 
swell from the Equator to 15N between 110W-140W. Elsewhere, a 
persistent surface trough extends from near 23N118W to 13N121W. 
Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are west of the 
trough to near 129W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in the vicinity of the 
through due to long-period northwest swell. Overnight ASCAT 
satellite data shows fresh to strong southwest winds south of 
the monsoon trough from 03N to 09N between 90W and 110W. Seas of 
8-10 ft remain in this area due to mixed south and northwest 
swell.

For the forecast, the large northwest to north swell covering 
the area south of 16N and west of 110W will subside tonight as it
continues to spread southward. The moderate to fresh winds north
of 26N will diminish today. Northeast trade winds will increase 
to fresh late tonight through Sun night across the entire area 
north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ as high pressure builds back 
across the region. Winds will diminish late Mon. A new set of
large northerly swell will affect waters north of 22N and east 
of 130W Sun night through Mon night before gradually subsiding 
mid- week.

$$
Aguirre