000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180933
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to low
pressure near 11N115W 1009 mb to 06N128W to low pressure near 
10N136W 1012 mb to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N to 12N between 83W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging is offshore central Baja California. An 
overnight ASCAT satellite pass from 18/0403 UTC shows fresh to 
strong NW winds in the southern half of the Gulf of California.
An altimeter pass from 18/0500 UTC over the southern Gulf of
California provides evidence of 5 to 7 ft seas across the area. 
ASCAT also captured fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec north of 15N, at 18/0400 UTC, where seas are
likely 6 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are likely 
occurring within 120 nm west of the coast of Baja California Sur.
Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft west of
Baja California, as well as offshore between Jalisco and
Guerrero. Seas are 1-2 ft in the northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds will continue in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight before diminishing early
Sun. Fresh NW winds across the central and southern Gulf of 
California will diminish to moderate to fresh later this morning 
through Sun. Then, the entire Gulf of California can expect
strong NW to NNW winds early Mon morning through Tue, along with
rough seas. West of Baja California, NW to N winds will increase
to fresh this afternoon, then increase further to fresh to 
strong Sun through Sun night. Large NW swell will enter the 
waters west of Baja California Sun night into Mon. Looking ahead,
the next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
possible during the middle of next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh SW winds are likely occurring offshore of Costa Rica. Seas
range from 6 to 8 ft in this area. Elsewhere south of the 
monsoon trough, moderate SW winds are ongoing with seas of 5-7 
ft. Light to gentle winds prevail N of 10N, along with seas of 
5-8 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of 10N 
through the forecast period. Fresh SW winds will continue 
offshore Costa Rica and western Panama through tonight. Winds 
will diminish Sun into early next week under a weak pressure 
pattern.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low along the monsoon trough is centered near 11N115W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 11.5N between 113W and 121W. Fresh to strong winds are likely
occurring with this low pressure. A buoy recently measured seas
up to 11 ft near this low pressure. Development, if any, of this
system is expected to be slow to occur over the next day or two 
while the disturbance moves slowly westward. By early next week, 
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive 
for further development. There is a low chance of tropical 
cyclone development within the next 48 hours.

A surface trough extends southwestward from 30N127W to 27N133W. 
Moderate to fresh winds are north of 26N between 122W and 131W.
Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW to N swell are ongoing north of 26N 
between 123W and 139W. Seas are also 8 to 10 ft in NW to N swell
from the Equator to 16N between 110W and 140W. Elsewhere, a 
surface trough extends from near 24N119W to 14N121W. Moderate to 
fresh N winds are W of the trough to near 127W. Seas are 8 to 9 
ft in the vicinity of the through due to long-period NW swell. 
Recent ASCAT satellite data show fresh to strong SW winds south 
of the monsoon trough from 03N to 09N between 90W and 110W. Seas 
of 8 to 10 ft prevail in this area, in mixed S and NW swell.

For the forecast, the large NW to N swell covering the area south
of 16N and west of 110W will subside tonight as it continues to 
spread southward. The moderate to fresh winds north of 26N will 
diminish today. NE trade winds will increase to fresh late
tonight through Sun night across the entire area north of the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ as high pressure builds back across the 
region. Winds will diminish late Mon. New large northerly swell 
will affect waters north of 22N and east of 130W Sun night 
through Mon night before gradually subsiding mid-week.

$$
Hagen