000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Nov 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to across the 
far southwestern Caribbean Sea to across the central part of
Costa Rica to 07N100W to low pressure near 09N114W 1011 mb to 
11N123W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 85W-95W, 
and within 60 nm south of the trough between 106W-111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light volcanic ash is possible through the morning offshore 
Guerrero, from 15.5N to 18N between 100W and 102.5W, due to 
enhanced emissions from the Popocatepetl volcano, however, the 
risk is currently analyzed to be below advisory criteria. 

Northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region are currently 
strong to near-gale force to the north of 13N, with seas of 8 to 
11 ft. A 1015 mb high pressure is centered offshore southern Baja
California near 24N116W. Overnight ASCAT satellite data shows 
light to gentle winds offshore Baja California, to the north of 
Cabo San Lazaro, underneath the high pressure center. Moderate N 
winds are near the coast, to the south of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas 
of 5 to 8 ft prevail west of Baja California in a NW swell. In 
the southern and central Gulf of California, moderate to fresh NW
winds are likely occurring, where seas are 3-6 ft. Gentle winds 
are over the northern Gulf of California with 1 to 2 ft seas. 
Gentle W to NW winds prevail elsewhere offshore between Jalisco 
and Guerrero, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
diminish slightly this morning, but fresh to strong N winds will
continue through Sat night before diminishing early Sun. NW 
swell across the Baja California offshore waters will gradually 
subside through Sat. The pressure gradient between high pressure 
just west of Baja California and lower pressure over northern 
Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW winds across central and
southern portions of the Gulf of California through Sun, except 
for fresh to strong this afternoon through tonight. These winds 
will then expand into northern portions of the Gulf of California
and increase to fresh to strong Sun night through Tue. West of 
Baja California, NW to N winds will increase to fresh Sat 
afternoon, then increase to fresh to strong Sun through Sun 
night. Looking ahead, the next gale-force gap wind event in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible during the middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted offshore
Costa Rica from 07N to 10N between 83.5W and 88W. Recent ASCAT
satellite data show fresh SW winds occurring within this area of
convection. Seas are likely 6 to 8 ft in this area. Elsewhere 
south of the monsoon trough, moderate SW winds are ongoing with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle winds prevail N of 09N, along with 
seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of 09N 
through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh SW winds will
continue offshore Panama and Costa Rica through Sat, with seas
to 8 ft continuing through tonight. Winds will diminish 
thereafter.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough is centered near
09114W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 09N to 11N between 113W-116W. Strong winds are in the 
eastern semicircle of the low. Development, if any, of this 
system is expected to be slow to occur over the next day or two 
as the disturbance moves generally westward. After that time, 
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive 
for further development. There is a low chance of tropical 
cyclone development within the next 48 hours.

A surface trough extends southward from a large low pressure
system north of the area from 30N129W to 26N139W, and then 
westward to 24N140W. Fresh to strong SW winds are east of the 
trough north of 26N between 124W-131W. Fresh W to NW winds are 
west of the trough axis. Large seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW to N 
swell are ongoing over the open waters N of about 02N and W of 
114W. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from near 27N119W 
to 15N122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
seen from 13N to 20N between 120W-122W. Moderate N winds are W 
of the trough. Seas are 9 to 10 ft in the vicinity of the through
in NW swell. South of the monsoon trough and E of 120W, moderate
to fresh S to SW winds prevail with seas 7 to 9 ft in mixed SE 
and NW swell.

For the forecast, the large NW to N swell covering the area from
06N to 30N between 120W and 140W will gradually subside as it 
spreads southward, bringing seas of 8 to 10 ft tonight between 
the Equator and 15N, west of 110W. Meanwhile, the low north of 
the area and surface trough will continue to bring fresh to 
strong winds north of 26N between 123W-137W through this 
evening, with seas of 8 to 10 ft across the area persisting 
through tonight before subsiding. NE trade winds will increase a 
bit to fresh late Sat through Sun night across most of the area 
north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ as high pressure builds back 
across the region.

$$
Aguirre