000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170400
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Nov 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0340 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N100W to 1010 mb low
pres near 09N114W to 11N122W to 09N130W to 1010 mb low pres near
11N137W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 10N between 79W and 105W, and from 03.5N to 11N between
111W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region are currently 
strong to near-gale force, to the north of 13.5N, with seas of 9
to 11 ft. A 1015 mb high pressure is centered just offshore of
Baja California near 28N116W. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N 
winds are likely occurring in the southern and central Gulf of 
California, as well as within 120 nm west of Baja California Sur.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail. NW swell is occurring 
west of Baja California, with seas of 6 to 9 ft across the area. 
A recent altimeter pass from 17/0000 UTC shows seas of 8 to 9 ft 
between 180 and 250 nm offshore of Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San 
Lucas. Seas are 1 to 2 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 
3 to 6 ft over the southern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, 
offshore Jalisco through Guerrero, seas are 5 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force N winds will continue
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through tonight. Then, fresh 
to strong N winds will continue Fri through Sat night before 
diminishing Sun. NW swell across the Baja California offshore 
waters will gradually subside through Sat. The pressure gradient 
between high pressure just west of Baja California and lower 
pressure over northern Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW 
winds across central and southern portions of the Gulf of 
California through Sun, except for fresh to strong Fri afternoon
through Fri night. These winds will then expand into northern 
portions of the Gulf of California and increase to fresh to 
strong Sun evening through Mon night. West of Baja California, NW
to N winds will increase to fresh Sat afternoon, then increase 
to fresh to strong Sun afternoon through Sun night. Looking 
ahead, the next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is possible by the middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of 09N, along with seas of 5-7 
ft in mixed swell. Elsewhere, moderate SW winds are ongoing 
south of the monsoon trough, except over the Galapagos Islands, 
where S winds are moderate, with 6 to 7 ft seas in S swell 
across the area. Elsewhere, seas are 5 to 7 ft, except up to 8 ft
well offshore of western Guatemala, well to the south of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of 09N 
through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh SW winds will
continue offshore Panama and Costa Rica through Sat, with seas
building to 8 ft late today through tonight. Winds will diminish
thereafter.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends southward from a large low pressure
system north of the area, from 30N129W, and then southwestward to
26N133W to 25N140W. Fresh to strong SW winds are east of the
trough, north of 26N and east of 131W. Fresh NW winds are west of
the trough axis. Large seas of 10 to 12 ft in NW to N swell are 
ongoing over the open waters N of 10N and W of 120W. Elsewhere,
a surface trough extends from 25N119W to a low pressure of 1010 
mb near 16N122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
near and east of the surface trough. Moderate to locally fresh N
to NE winds are W of the trough. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the 
vicinity of the through in NW swell. South of the monsoon trough 
and E of 120W, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail 
with seas 6 to 8 ft in mixed SE and NW swell.

For the forecast, the large NW to N swell covering the area from
10N to 30N between 120W and 140W will gradually subside as it
spreads southward, bringing seas of 8 to 10 ft Fri night between
the Equator and 15N, west of 113W. Meanwhile, the low north of
the area and surface trough will continue to bring fresh to
strong winds north of 26N between 123W and 137W through early Fri
evening, with seas of 8 to 10 ft across the area persisting
through Fri night before subsiding. NE trade winds will increase
a bit to fresh late Sat through Sun night across most of the area
north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ as high pressure builds back 
across the region. Otherwise, a small area of low pressure 
located near 09N114W continues to produce disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is 
possible over the next few days while it moves slowly westward 
across the central to western portion of the East Pacific. There
is a low chance of tropical cyclone development within the next
48 hours.

$$
Hagen