000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Nov 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to low pressure near 09N112W 1010 mb to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N between 81W and 96W, and from 04N to 11N between 120W and 137W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 11N between 110W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A scatterometer pass earlier this afternoon indicated that winds in the Tehuantepec region are below gale force, however fresh to near gale force N to NE persist reaching as far as 08N. Seas have also subside and currently peak to 10 ft. Weak high pressure across Baja California Norte supports light to gentle variable winds across the Baja Peninsula offshore zones. However, high pressure over the Great Basin and SW U.S.A. is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the central and southern Gulf of California, including the entrance of the gulf. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in NW swell prevail across the Baja offshore waters while seas to 5 ft are along the Gulf of California, being the peak seas at the entrance of the gulf. Elsewhere across the SW Mexican waters, winds are light to gentle with seas to 5 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, NW swell propagating across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will reach the Baja Sur waters by this evening then gradually subside across the area through Sun. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Great Basin and low pressure along western Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW winds across central and southern portions of the Gulf of California today through Sun, then expand into north portions and increase to fresh to strong Sun evening through Mon night. High pressure will build across the Baja offshore waters Sat afternoon through Sun to bring a return to moderate to fresh northerly winds. Strong to near gale force winds will gradually diminisg through Thu morning. Fresh to strong N winds will resume in Tehuantepec Fri night through Sun before the next gale force gap wind event forecast to begin late Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of 08N, along with seas of 5-7 ft, except well offshore Guatemala where seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell due to ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap winds. Elsewhere, moderate SW to W winds are ongoing south of the monsoon trough, except over the Galapagos Islands, where S winds are gentle to moderate, with 6 to 8 ft seas in S-SW swell across the area. For the forecast, moderate winds will continue tonight across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of 08N through the forecast period. Meanwhile, southerly swell will continue across the area waters through the weekend producing seas of 5 to 8 ft. Seas are expected to remain 7 to 10 ft in NW swell across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala into this afternoon due to the extended period of Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap winds. Winds and seas are expected to diminish modestly area-wide Sat through early next week as broad low pressure across the SW Caribbean lifts NE and away from the region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large seas to 11 ft in NW swell are ongoing over the open waters N of 17N and W of 128W, just behind the remnants of a cold front that are currently analyzed as a surface trough extending from 30N129W to 23N140W. Scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NW to W winds behind the trough and gentle to moderate SW winds ahead of it reaching as far as 120W. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 21N119W to a low pressure of 1011 mb near 17N121W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are W of the trough while moderate SE winds are E of the trough axis. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in the vicinity of the through. South of 10N and E of 120W, moderate S to SW winds prevail with southerly swell supporting 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed SE and NW swell. For the forecast, large seas to 11 ft behind the remnants of the cold front will gradually subside through tonight. Trade winds will start to increase this weekend as high pressure builds back across the region. Otherwise, a small area of low pressure located about 1000 miles to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some additional development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves westward across the central to western portion of the East Pacific. $$ Ramos