000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161744
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Nov 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure persisting across
Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico, behind a frontal system 
across the SE Gulf of Mexico, will continue to support gale- 
force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehunatepec through 
late this morning. Peak seas downwind of Tehuantepec are 
expected to fluctuate between 10 and 15 ft, then begin to 
diminish below 12 ft this afternoon. NW seas generated across 
Tehuantepec will spread into the outer offshore waters of 
Guatemala, where seas will remain 7 to 10 ft through late 
tonight. Strong gap winds, and associated seas, will gradually 
diminish this afternoon into the weekend.

Large area of high seas...Large NW to N swell, generated by
complex low pressure and an associated frontal system across the
NE Pacific, continue to propagate southeastward into the open NW
waters of the discussion area. Seas in the 12 ft to 14 ft range
are ongoing N of 12N and W of 124W. This area in excess of 12 ft
seas will begin to gradually subside this evening.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to low pressure near 
09N112W 1010 mb to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 04N to 12N between 81W and 96W, and from 04N to 11N between
120W and 137W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 03N to 11N between 110W and 120W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning
in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Weak high pressure across Baja California Norte supports light 
to gentle variable winds across the Baja Peninsula offshore zones
as well as the SW Mexican offshore waters. However, high
pressure over the Great Basin is supporting moderate to locally
fresh NW winds along the Gulf of California and the entrance of
the gulf. Seas of 5 to 9 ft in NW swell prevail across the Baja 
offshore waters while seas to 5 ft are along the Gulf of 
California, being the peak seas at the entrance of the gulf. 
Elsewhere across the SW Mexico waters, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed 
swell.

For the forecast, NW swell propagating across the Baja California
Norte offshore waters will reach the Baja Sur waters by this  
evening then gradually subside across the area through Sun. The 
pressure gradient between high pressure over the Great Basin and 
low pressure along western Mexico will support moderate to fresh 
NW winds across central and southern portions of the Gulf of 
California today through Sun, then expand into north portions 
and increase to fresh to strong Sun evening through Mon night. 
High pressure will build across the Baja offshore waters Sat 
afternoon through Sun to bring a return to moderate to fresh 
northerly winds. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse again in 
Tehuantepec Fri night through Sun. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of 08N, along with seas of 5-7 
ft, except well offshore Guatemala where seas are 8 to 10 ft in 
NW swell due to ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap winds.
Elsewhere, moderate SW to W winds are ongoing south of the 
monsoon trough, except over the Galapagos Islands, where S winds 
are gentle to moderate, with 6 to 8 ft seas in S-SW swell across 
the area.

For the forecast, moderate winds will continue tonight across 
the Gulf of Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds will prevail 
elsewhere N of 08N through the forecast period. Meanwhile, 
southerly swell will continue across the area waters through the 
weekend producing seas of 5 to 8 ft. Seas are expected to remain 
7 to 10 ft in NW swell across the outer offshore waters of 
Guatemala into this afternoon due to the extended period of Gulf
of Tehuantepec gale-force gap winds. Winds and seas are expected
to diminish modestly area-wide Sat through early next week as 
broad low pressure across the SW Caribbean lifts NE and away from
the region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front continues to move across the NW waters extending 
from 30N132W to 24N138W. A narrow band of moderate S to SW winds
is found ahead of the front to the N of 25N reaching to 123W, 
with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range in NW to N swell. Fresh NW to 
W winds follow the front with seas in the 12 to 14 ft range. 

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 23N120W to just north 
of low pressure of 1011 mb near 16N122W. Moderate to fresh winds
are on either side of the trough, with seas of 7 to 9 ft mainly 
W of the trough axis. South of 10N, moderate S to SW winds 
prevail with southerly swell supporting 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed
SE and NW swell.

For the forecast, the front will continue to move E-SE then 
stall and weaken in the vicinity of 120W today. Very large seas 
in excess of 12 ft have spread SE and far E as 124W, and will 
gradually subside through tonight. Elsewhere, seas of 8-9 ft 
across the W-central waters will slowly subside, ahead of the 
large NW swell dominating the NW waters. Looking ahead, trade 
winds will start to increase this weekend as high pressure builds
back across the region.

$$
Ramos