000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161725
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Nov 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure persisting across
Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico, behind a frontal system 
across the SE Gulf of Mexico, will continue to support gale- 
force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehunatepec through 
late this morning. Peak seas downwind of Tehuantepec are 
expected to fluctuate between 10 and 15 ft, then begin to 
diminish below 12 ft this afternoon. NW seas generated across 
Tehuantepec will spread into the outer offshore waters of 
Guatemala, where seas will remain 7 to 10 ft through late 
tonight. Strong gap winds, and associated seas, will gradually 
diminish this afternoon into the weekend.

Large area of high seas...Large NW to N swell, generated by
complex low pressure and an associated frontal system across the
NE Pacific, continue to propagate southeastward into the open NW
waters of the discussion area. Seas in the 12 ft to 14 ft range
are ongoing N of 12N and W of 124W. This area in excess of 12 ft
seas will begin to gradually subside this evening.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74.5W to low pressure near
13.5N81.5W 1007 mb to 06.5N99W to low pressure near 10N111W 1008
mb to low pressure near 16.5N121W 1008 mb to 09N128W to beyond 
10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 05N to 12N E of 90W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate
to strong convection is noted from 05N to 11.5N between 112W and
129W, and within 120 nm either side of line from 25N117W to 
11.5N121W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N W of
129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning
in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Weak high pressure across Baja California Norte supports light 
to gentle variable winds across the water north of 20N, except 
the entrance to the Gulf of California, where moderate N to NW 
winds prevail and extend to Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 6 to 9 ft 
in NW swell prevail across the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 1 
to 3 ft inside the Gulf of California, except 4 to 5 ft across 
the entrance. Elsewhere across the southwest Mexico waters, winds
are light to gentle and seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, NW swell propagating across the Baja California
Norte offshore waters will reach the Baja Sur waters by Thu 
evening then gradually subside across the area through Sun. The 
pressure gradient between high pressure over the Great Basin and 
low pressure along western Mexico will support moderate to fresh 
NW winds across central and southern portions of the Gulf of 
California Thu through Sun, then expand into north portions and 
increase to fresh to strong Sun evening through Mon night. High 
pressure will build across the Baja offshore waters Sat afternoon
through Sun to bring a return to moderate to fresh northerly 
winds. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse again in Tehuantepec 
Fri night through Sun. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of 09N, along with seas of 5-7 
ft, except well offshore Guatemala where seas are 8 to 10 ft in 
NW swell due to ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap 
winds. Elsewhere, moderate SW to W winds are ongoing south of the
monsoon trough, except over the Galapagos Islands, where S winds
are gentle to moderate, with 6 to 8 ft seas in S-SW swell across
the area.

For the forecast, moderate winds will continue tonight across 
the Gulf of Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds will prevail 
elsewhere N of 09N through the forecast period. Meanwhile, 
southerly swell will continue across the area waters through the 
weekend producing seas of 5 to 8 ft. Seas are expected to remain 
7 to 10 ft in NW swell across the outer offshore waters of 
Guatemala into Thu afternoon due to the extended period of Gulf 
of Tehuantepec gale-force gap winds. Winds and seas are expected
to diminish modestly area-wide Sat through early next week as 
broad low pressure across the SW Caribbean lifts NE and away from
the region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front continues to move slowly across the NW waters 
extending from 30N121W to 16N140W. A narrow band of moderate to 
fresh S to SW winds is found ahead of the front to the N of 26N,  
with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range in NW to N swell. Fresh to 
strong NW to W winds follow the front W of 128W, with seas in the
12 to 18 ft range. Moderate W to SW winds are elsewhere between 
the front and 128W, with seas 10 to 14 ft.

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 24N118W to just north 
of low pressure of 1008 mb near 16.5N121W. Moderate to fresh 
winds are on either side of the trough, with seas of 7 to 9 ft 
mainly W of the trough axis. Scattered convection, described 
above, is occurring within 120 nm either side of the trough 
axis, supported by a broad and energetic deep layered upper 
trough covering most of the NE Pacific N of 20N, A weakening high
pressure ridge dominates the remainder of the waters between N 
of 20N and E of 120W, and is supporting moderate or less winds 
with seas to 7 ft. South of 10N, moderate SE winds prevail with 
southerly swell supporting 6 to 8 ft seas in SE swell.

For the forecast, the front will continue to move E-SE through
tonight, then stall and weaken in the vicinity of 120W Thu. Very
large seas in excess of 12 ft have spread SE and far E as 125W,  
and will gradually subside through Thu night. Elsewhere, seas of
8-9 ft across the W-central waters will slowly subside, ahead of
the large NW swell dominating the NW waters. Looking ahead, 
trade winds will start to increase this weekend as high pressure 
builds back across the region.

$$
Ramos