000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151603
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Nov 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure persisting across
Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico, behind a slow moving cold
front across the central Gulf of Mexico, will continue to 
support gale-force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of 
Tehunatepec through tonight. Peak seas downwind of Tehuantepec 
are expected to fluctuate between 11 and 14 ft through Thu 
morning. NW seas generated across Tehuantepec will spread into 
the outer offshore waters of Guatemala, where seas will remain 7 
to 10 ft through late tonight. Strong gap winds, and associated 
seas, will gradually diminish Thu into the weekend.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to low pressure near 
15N121W 1010 mb to 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 10N to 20N between 113W and
123W, and from 05N to 11N between 113W and 130W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N E of 90W, and from 
06N to 14N between 130W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning
in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Weak high pressure just offshore of Baja Norte extends a ridge 
S-SE across the offshore waters of Baja California to 21N. This 
is producing light to gentle variable winds across these waters but
the entrance to the Gulf of California, where moderate N to NW 
winds prevail. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in NW swell prevail across the 
Baja offshore waters. Seas are 1 to 3 ft inside the Gulf of 
California, except 4 to 5 ft across the entrance. Elsewhere W of 
Puerto Angel, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, new NW swell will propagate into the Baja 
California waters today through Thu night, raising seas to 6 to 
9 ft. A cold front across the open NW waters along 125W will 
move slowly E-SE and reach near 122W by Thu before dissipating. 
High pressure will then build eastward across the area Fri, and 
strengthen Sat through Sun to bring a return to moderate to fresh
northerly winds N of 17N.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of 09N, along with seas of 5-7 
ft, except well offshore Guatemala where seas have built to 8 ft
and higher in NW swell due to ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-
force gap winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW to W winds 
prevail south of the monsoon trough, along about 09N, where seas
of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell prevail.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of 09N 
with mainly moderate SW to W winds to the S of 09N through early 
Fri, then briefly increase to moderate to fresh Fri. Meanwhile, 
southerly swell will continue across the area waters through the 
weekend producing seas of 5 to 7 ft. Seas are expected to remain 
7 to 10 ft in NW swell across the outer offshore waters of 
Guatemala into Thu due to the extended period of Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale-force gap winds. Winds and seas are expected to 
diminish modestly Sat through early next week as broad low 
pressure across the SW Caribbean lifts NE and away from the 
region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front continues to move slowly across the NW waters 
extending from 30N125W to 17N140W. A narrow band of fresh to
strong S to SW winds is found ahead of the front to the N of 
25N reaching to 120W with seas in the 11 to 12 ft range in NW to
N swell. Fresh to strong NW to W winds follow the front with seas
in the 12 to 21 ft range. 

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 25N122W to just north 
of broad low pressure of 1010 mb near 15N121W. Moderate trade 
winds are noted in the N semicircle of the low between 115W and
130W, where seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range. A weakening high 
pressure ridge dominates the remainder of the waters between N of
20N and E of 120W, and is supporting moderate or less winds with
seas to 7 ft. South of 10N, moderate SE winds prevail with 
southerly swell supporting 6 to 8 ft seas in SE swell.

For the forecast, the front will continue to move E-SE through
tonight, then stall and weaken in the vicinity of 122W Thu. Very
large seas in excess of 12 ft will gradually spread SE and reach
as far E as 125W by tonight before seas gradually subside 
through Thu night. Elsewhere, seas of 8-9 ft across the W-central
waters will slowly subside, ahead of the expected large NW swell
entering the NW waters. Looking ahead, trade winds will start to
increase this weekend as high pressure builds back across the 
region.

$$
Ramos