000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Nov 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure persisting across NE Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico, behind a slow moving cold front across the western Gulf of Mexico, will continue to support gale-force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehunatepec through Wed night. Peak seas downwind of Tehuantepec are expected to fluctuate between 11 and 14 ft through Thu morning. NW seas generated across Tehuantepec will spread into the outer offshore waters of Guatemala, where seas will remain 7 to 10 ft through Wed night. Strong gap winds, and associated seas, will gradually diminish into the weekend. Gale Warning NW waters...a large and complex area of low pressure dominates the NE Pacific between the W coast of the U.S. and 150W. A cold front associated with this low is in the far NW waters extending from 31N128W to 20.5N140W. Strong to gale-force NW winds are west of this boundary, mainly north of 27N and west of 137.5W. Peak seas with these winds area 18 to 23 ft. Winds will diminish below gale-force by around midnight tonight as the front moves slowly SE tonight into Wed. The front will weaken and stall Wed night through Thu, just W of 122W, with winds and seas behind the front gradually diminishing. However, associated seas of 12 ft and higher will continue to spread SE across the NW waters north of 15N and west of 125W tonight through early Thu. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74.5W to 10.5N82W to 08N105W to low pressure near 14.5N122W 1007 mb to 08.5N128W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 09N E of 82W, and from 05N to 09N between 87W and 113W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm N and 120 nm S of the trough between 115W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Weak high pressure just offshore of Baja Norte extends a ridge extends S-SE across the offshore waters of Baja California to 18N. This is producing light to gentle N to NE winds across these waters, and across all but the entrance to the Gulf of California, where moderate NW winds prevail. Moderate easterly winds are noted near and around Clarion Island. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell prevail across the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 1 to 3 ft inside the Gulf of California, except 4 to 5 ft across the entrance. Elsewhere W of Puerto Angel, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, new NW swell will propagate into the Baja California waters Wed through Thu night, raising seas to 6 to 9 ft. A cold front across the NW waters tonight will move slowly E-SE and reach near 122W by Thu before dissipating. High pressure will then build eastward across the area Fri through Sat to bring a return to moderate to fresh northerly winds N of 17N. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of 08N, along with seas of 4-6 ft, except well offshore Guatemala where seas have built to 8 ft in NW swell due to ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, along about 08N, where seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell prevail. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of 08N with mainly moderate SW to W winds to the S of 08N through Sat. Meanwhile, southerly swell will continue across the area waters through the weekend producing seas of 4 to 7 ft. Seas are expected to build to 7 to 10 ft well offshore Guatemala tonight into Thu due to the extended period of Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a gale warning for the far NW waters in association with a strong cold front. A reinforcing cold front continues to move across the NW waters extending from 30N128W to 20.5N140W. A narrow band of fresh S to SW winds is found ahead of the front to the N of 27N, where seas are 9 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. Behind the front, NW to W winds gradually increase to strong to 136W, where seas have build 10 to 18 ft. The gale-force N to NW winds are currently across the far NW waters W of 136W, where seas are 18 to 23 ft. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 15N123W to 22N123W, just to the north of broad low pressure of 1007 mb near 14.5N122W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted NE of the low and E of the trough to 114W, where seas are 8 to 9 ft. A weakening high pressure ridge dominates the remainder of the waters between 10N and the cold front, and is supporting moderate or less winds, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. South of 10N, moderate SE winds prevail with southerly swell supporting 6 to 8 ft seas in SE swell. For the forecast, the front will continue to move E-SE through Wed night, then stall and weaken in the vicinity of 122W into late week. Very large seas in excess of 12 ft will gradually spread SE and reach as far E as 125W by Wed afternoon before seas gradually subside Wed night through Thu night. Elsewhere, seas of 8-9 ft across the W-central waters will slowly subside, ahead of the expected large NW swell entering the NW waters. Looking ahead, trade winds may start to increase this weekend as high pressure builds back across the region. $$ Stripling