000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142119 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Nov 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure persisting across NE Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico, behind a slow moving cold front across the western Gulf of Mexico, will continue to support gale-force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehunatepec through Wed night. Peak seas downwind of Tehuantepec are expected to fluctuate between 12 and 14 ft through Thu morning. NW seas generated across Tehuantepec will spread into the outer offshore waters of Guatemala, where seas will build to 7 to 10 ft through Wed night. Strong gap winds will gradually diminish into the weekend. Gale Warning NW waters...a large and complex area of low pressure dominates the NE Pacific between the W coast of the U.S. and 150W. A cold front associated with this low is in the far NW waters extending from 31N128W to 22N140W. Strong to gale-force NW winds are west of this boundary, mainly north of 28N and west of 137W, with peak seas of 18 to 22 ft. As the front weakens and stalls, winds and seas will graduallty diminish. However, associated seas of 12 ft and higher will continue to spread SE across the NW waters north of 15N and west of 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N100W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 14N123W to 10N126W. The ITCZ extends from 10N126W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 79W and 86W. Similar convection is also noted from 04N to 10N between 91W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weakening high pressure ridge extends SE across the offshore waters of Baja California to 15N. This is producing light to gentle N to NE winds across these waters, and across all but the entrance to the Gulf of California, where moderate NW winds prevail. Moderate easterly winds are also noted near and around Clarion Island. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail across the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 1 to 3 ft inside the Gulf of California, except 4 to 5 ft across the entrance. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, new NW swell will propagate into the Baja California waters through Thu night. High pressure will then build eastward across the area Sat to bring a return to moderate to fresh northerly winds N of 17N. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of 08N, along with seas of 4-6 ft, except well offshore Guatemala where seas have built to 8 ft due to Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, along about 08N, where seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell prevail. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of 08N with mainly moderate SW to W winds to the S of 08N through Sat. Meanwhile, southerly swell will continue across the area waters through the weekend producing seas of 4 to 7 ft. Seas are expected to build to 8 to 10 ft well offshore Guatemala into Thu due to the extended period of Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a gale warning for the far NW waters in association with a strong cold front. A reinforcing cold front continues to move across the NW waters extending from 31N128W to 22N140W. A narrow band of fresh SW winds is found ahead of the front to the N of 27N, where seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. Behind the front, winds gradually increase to strong to near gale force, where seas build 10 to 18 ft. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 13N123W to 20N123W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted east of the trough to 112W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. A weakening high pressure dominates the remainder of the waters north of 10N supporting moderate or less winds, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. South of 10N, moderate SE winds prevail with southerly swell supporting 6 to 8 ft seas. For the forecast, the front will continue to stall and weaken into late week. Very large seas in excess of 12 ft will gradually decay at this time. Elsewhere, seas of 8-9 ft across the W-central waters will slowly subside, ahead of the expected large NW swell entering the NW waters. Looking ahead, trade winds may start to increase this weekend. $$ Mora/Konarik