000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141545 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure persisting across NE Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico, behind a slow moving cold front across the western Gulf of Mexico, will continue to support gale-force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehunatepec through Wed night. Winds will be highest this eveing, when sustained speeds may reach near 40 kt. Peak seas downwind of Tehuantepec are expected to fluctuate between 12 and 14 ft through Thu morning. NW seas generated across Tehuantepec will spread into the outer offshore waters of Guatemala, where seas will build to 7 to 10 ft Tue into Wed night. Strong gap winds will gradually diminish through the end of the week. Gale Warning NW waters...a large and complex area of low pressure dominates the NE Pacific between the W coast of the U.S. and 150W, and is forecast to deepen and shift southward through Wed. A cold front associated with this low has moved SE and entered the far NW waters. A stronger cold front follows this first front, and will sweep southeastward into the far NW waters today, followed by strong to gale-force NW winds, and peak seas of 20 to 24 ft. As the front weakens and shifts southeastward, winds and seas will diminish. However, associated seas of 12 ft and higher will continue to spread SE across the NW waters north of 15N and west of 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N100W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 14N123W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N and east of 98W. Scaterred to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 31N120W and extends a weakening ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California and to Cabo Corrientes. This is producing light to gentle N to NE winds across the Baja offshore waters N of 20N, and across all but the entrance to the Gulf of California, where moderate NW winds prevail. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail in slowly building NW swell across the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 1 to 3 ft inside the Gulf of California, except 4 to 5 ft across the entrance. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of 20N execpt near and around the Revillagigedo Islands where winds moderate easterly winds are noted. Seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, winds north of 20N will remain light to gentle through Wed as weak high pressure persists NW of the area. New NW swell will propagate into the Baja California waters today through Thu. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to stall and dissipate just W of the outer Baja Norte waters late Thu through Fri. High pressure will then build westward across the area Sat to bring a return to moderate to fresh northerly winds N of 20N. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 08N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail to the south of the monsoon trough, along about 08N, where seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell prevail. For the forecast, NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to fresh tonight then diminish through mid- week as broad low pressure develops across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of 08N with mainly moderate S to SW winds to the S of 08N through Thu. Meanwhile, southerly swell will continue across the area waters through Thu producing seas of 4 to 7 ft basin-wide. Seas are expected to build to 8-plus ft well offshore Guatemala tonight into Thu due to an extended period of Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a gale warning for the far NW waters in association with a strong cold front early this week. A pair of cold fronts have entered the NW waters. The leading front extends from 31N127W to 20N140W. The second cold front parallels the leading front 150 nm to the west. A narrow band of fresh SW winds is found ahead of the front to the N of 26N, while NW to W winds of 20 to 30 kt prevail behind the front. Seas behind the front are 10 to 19 ft in building NW swell, and 8 to 10 ft in NW to N swell elsewhere N of 10N. High pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 31N120W and extends a weak and broad ridge south and southeastward that dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 110W. A modest pressure gradient exists across these waters, producing mainly moderate trades from 10N to 19N and W of about 120W. Seas of 8-9 ft in NE wind waves and NW swell prevail across those waters. Southerly swell supports seas of 7-9 ft from S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ across the Equator. For the forecast, the fresh trades will diminish slightly through tonight ahead of the cold front. The front will weaken and be overtaken by a second and stronger front mentioned in the Special Features section above, and will move across the NW and N central waters through Thu, followed by very large seas in excess of 12 ft. Elsewhere , seas of 8-9 ft across the W-central waters will slowly subside, ahead of the expected large NW swell entering the NW waters. The southerly swell around 8 ft will linger from 06N southward across the Equator into tonight before subsiding. $$ Mora/Konarik