000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140939 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Nov 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure persisting across NE Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico, behind a stagnant cold front across the western Gulf of Mexico, will continue to support gale-force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehunatepec through Wed night. Winds will be highest during the evening hours, when sustained speeds may reach near 40 kt. Peak seas downwind of Tehuantepec are expected to fluctuate between 12 and 14 ft through Thu morning. NW seas generated across Tehuantepec will spread into the outer offshore waters of Guatemala, where seas will build to 7 to 10 ft Tue into Wed night. Gales are expected to end late Wed night, then strong gap winds will gradually diminish through the end of the week. Gale Warning NW waters...a large and complex area of low pressure dominates the NE Pacific between the W coast of the U.S. and 150W tonight, and is forecast to deepen and shift southward through Wed. A cold front associated with this low has moved SE and entered the far NW waters during the past 12 hours. A stronger cold front follows this first front, and will sweep southeastward into the far NW waters Tue afternoon through Tue night, followed by strong to gale-force NW winds, and seas in excess of 18 ft. Peak seas behind this stronger front will build 20 to 24 ft Tue afternoon through night, then subside modestly behind the front as it shifts southeastward. This second front is expected to reach from near 30N132W to 24N140W by Wed morning, then weaken and begin to stall from 30N125W to 21N140W by Thu morning. Winds behind the front will diminish considerably Wed night into Thu, and below 25 kt. However, associated seas of 12 ft and higher will spread SE across all of the NW waters and reach from 30N125W to 15N140W by Thu morning. Seas are expected to subside quickly Thu through Thu night as the low weakens and begins to drift eastward towards the Pacific coast of the U.S. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 10.5N80W to 08.5N98W to low pressure near 11.5N115W to low pressure near 13.5N122W to 08.5N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N130W to beyond 08.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the coasts E of 91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 10.5N between 87W and 110W, and from 07.5N to 09.5N between 125W and 140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 112W and 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 29N121W and extends a weakening ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California and to Cabo Corrientes. This is producing light to gentle N to NE winds across the Baja offshore waters N of 21N, and across all but the entrance to the Gulf of California, where moderate NW winds prevail. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail in slowly building NW swell across the Baja offshore waters, except to 9 ft across the far NW Baja Norte waters. Seas are 2 to 4 ft inside the Gulf of California, except 4 to 5 ft across the entrance. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of 21N to Puerto Angel, where seas are 4-7 ft in mixed S-SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds N of 21N will remain light to gentle through Wed as weak high pressure persists NW of the area. New NW swell will propagate into the Baja California waters today through Thu. Gale conditions will persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Thu before gradually diminishing. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to stall and dissipate just W of the outer Baja Norte waters late Thu through Fri. High pressure will then build westward across the area Sat to bring a return to moderate to fresh northerly winds N of 18N. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 08N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail to the south of the monsoon trough, along about 08N, where seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell prevail. For the forecast, NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to fresh tonight then diminish through mid- week as broad low pressure develops across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of 08N with mainly moderate S to SW winds to the S of 08N through Thu. Meanwhile, southerly swell will continue across the area waters through Thu producing seas of 4 to 7 ft basin-wide. Seas are expected to build to 8-plus ft well offshore Guatemala Tue into Thu due to an extended period of Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a gale warning for the far NW waters in association with a strong cold front early this week. High pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 29N121W and extends a weak and broad ridge south and southeastward that dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 110W. A modest pressure gradient exists across these waters, producing mainly moderate trades from 10N to 19N and W of about 120W. Seas of 8-9 ft in NE wind waves and NW swell prevail across those waters. A cold front has entered the NW waters, and extends from 30N129W to 22N140W. A narrow band of fresh SW winds is found ahead of the front to the N of 26N, while NW to W winds of 15 to 25 kt prevail behind the front. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere between 21N and the front. Seas behind the front are 10 to 19 ft in building NW swell, and 8 to 10 ft in NW to N swell elsewhere N of 10N. Southerly swell supports seas of 7-9 ft from S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ across the Equator. For the forecast, the fresh trades will diminish slightly through Tue night ahead of the cold front. The front is weaken and be overtaken by a second and stronger front mentioned in the Special Features section above, and will move across the NW and N central waters Tue through Thu, followed by very large seas in excess of 12 ft. Elsewhere , seas of 8-9 ft across the W-central waters will slowly subside through Tue, ahead of the expected large NW swell entering the NW waters. The southerly swell around 8 ft will linger from 06N southward across the Equator into Tue night before subsiding. $$ Stripling