000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140408 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Nov 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure persisting across NE Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to support gale-force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehunatepec through mid-week. Winds will be highest during the evening hours, when sustained speeds may reach near 40 kt. Peak seas downwind of Tehuantepec are expected to reach near 12 ft tonight and near 14 ft Tue afternoon and night. NW seas generated across Tehuantepec will move into the outer offshore waters of Guatemala, where seas will build to 7 to 10 ft Tue into Wed night. Gales are expected to end late Wed night, then strong gap winds will gradually diminish through the end of the week. Gale Warning NW waters...deepening low pressure across the NE Pacific will move southward through Tue, and remain just N of the area waters. Ahead of the low, a strong cold front will sink into the NW waters through early Tue, reaching near 131W by Tue morning. As the supporting low pressure center approaches 32N Tue, strong to gale-force NW winds will move into the far NW waters midday Tue, before diminishing below gale-force Tue night. Associated seas in excess of 12 ft will immediately follow the cold front, and reach as far S as 15N by Thu, with peak seas building to over 20 ft across the far NW waters early Tue through early Wed, then shifting slowly eastward to 130W through Wed afternoon. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74.5W to 08.5N99W to low pressure near 12N114.5W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to 08.5N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 88W and 102W, and from 08N to 10N between 125W and 130W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 14.5N between 106W and 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure of 1016 mb is centered near 29N122W and extends a broad ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California and to Cabo Corrientes. This is producing mainly gentle N to NE winds across the Baja offshore waters N of 20N, and across all but the entrance to the Gulf of California, where moderate NW winds prevail. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail in mainly NW swell across the Baja offshore waters, except 7 to 9 ft across the Baja Norte waters. Seas are 2 to 4 ft inside the Gulf of California, except 4 to 5 ft across the entrance. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of 20N to Puerto Angel, where seas are 4-6 ft in mixed S-SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds N of 20N will remain light to gentle through Wed as weak high pressure persists NW of the area. A series of pulses of NW swell will propagate across the Baja California waters through the week. Gale conditions will persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Thu before gradually diminishing. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the outer Baja Norte waters late Thu and stall there through Fri before dissipating. High pressure will then build westward across the area Sat to bring a return to moderate to fresh northerly winds N of 18N. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 08N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail to the south of the monsoon trough, along about 08N, where seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell prevail. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to fresh tonight then diminish through mid- week as broad low pressure develops across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of 08N with mainly moderate S to SW winds to the S of 08N through mid- week. Meanwhile, southerly swell will continue across the area waters through Thu producing seas of 4 to 7 ft basin-wide. Seas are expected to build to 8-plus ft well offshore Guatemala Tue into Thu due to an extended period of Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a gale warning for the far NW waters in association with a strong cold front early this week. High pressure of 1016 mb is centered near 29N122W and extends a weak and broad ridge south and southeastward that dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 117W. A modest pressure gradient exists across these waters, producing mainly moderate trades from 09N to 20N and W of about 120W. Seas of 8-9 ft in NE wind waves and NW swell prevail across those waters. A 1008 mb low center is noted near 13.5N121.5W and is moving westward. The pressure gradient between the low and the ridge to the NW is producing moderate to fresh NE winds within 180 nm across the N semicircle of the low, where seas are 8 ft. A cold front has entered the NW waters this evening, and extends from 30N133W to 26N140W. A narrow band of fresh SW winds is found ahead of the front to the N of 26N, while NW to W winds of 20 to 30 kt prevail behind the front. Gentle to winds are elsewhere between 20N and the front. Seas behind the front are 10 to 15 ft in building NW swell, and 8 to 10 ft in NW to N swell elsewhere N of 10N. Southerly swell supports seas of 7-9 ft from S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ across the Equator. For the forecast, the fresh trades will diminish slightly through Tue night ahead of the cold front. The front is expected to reach from near 30N131W to 22N140W by Tue morning, and from near 30N130W to 20N140W by Wed morning. Seas of 8-9 ft across the W-central waters will slowly subside through Tue, ahead of the expected large NW swell entering the NW waters. The southerly swell around 8 ft will linger from 06N southward across the Equator into Tue before subsiding. $$ Stripling