000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130356 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Nov 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure building S into NE Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico will support gale force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehunatepec through mid- week. Sustained winds may pulse to near 40 kt each night through at least Tue night. Peak seas downwind of Tehuantepec are expected to reach near 12 ft tonight, and near 14 ft Tue night. NW seas generated across Tehuantepec will move into the outer offshore waters of Guatemala, where seas will build to 7 to 10 ft Tue through Wed. Gales are expected to end late Wed night, with the strong gap winds gradually diminishing through the end of the work week. Gale Warning NW waters...deepening low pressure will develop across the NE Pacific by Mon and move SSE, and remain just N of the area waters. Ahead of the low, a strong cold front will sink into the NW waters Mon afternoon through early Tue, reaching near 131W by Tue morning. As the supporting low pressure center approaches 32N Tue, strong to gale-force NW winds will sink into the far NW waters Tue morning through afternoon. Associated seas in excess of 12 ft will accompany the increasing winds, and reach as far S as 20N by Wed morning, with peak seas building to around 20 ft across the far NW waters early Tue, then shifting slowly eastward through Wed. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 12N80W to 07.5N94W to low pres near 12N111W. The ITCZ extends from near 12.5N118W to 07.5N130W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N to 08.5N E of 84W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 15N between 105W and 112W, within 90 nm either side of trough between 89W and 98W, and within 90 nm N of ITCZ between 120W and 126W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 1019 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area, near 31N126W, and extends a broad ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California and to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across NW Mexico is producing only gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters N of 20N, and gentle to moderate N-NW winds throughout the Gulf of California. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail in mainly NW swell across the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 2 to 4 ft inside the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of 20N to Puerto Angel, where seas are 4-6 ft in mixed S-SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of California will gradually diminish from S to N tonight, and remain at less than 15 kt through Wed. Gentle to moderate winds across the Baja offshore waters will diminish tonight as high pressure weakens NW of the area. A series of pulses of NW swell will propagate across the Baja California waters throughout the coming week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 08N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail to the south of the monsoon trough, along about 08N, where seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell prevail. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight then diminish into mid-week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of 08N with mainly moderate S to SW winds to the S of 08N through early week. Meanwhile, southerly swell will build across the waters N of 08N, with seas of 4 to 7 ft basin-wide persisting into early week. Seas are expected to build to 8-plus ft well offshore Guatemala Tue into Thu due to an extended period of Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a gale warning issued for the far NW waters in association with a strong cold front early this week. High pressure of 1019 mb is centered N of the area near 31N126W, and extends a broad ridge south and southeastward that dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 117W. A modest pressure gradient across these waters, producing moderate to locally fresh trades from 09N to 23N and W of about 117W. Seas of 8-10 ft in NE wind waves and NW swell prevail across those waters. A 1007 mb low center is noted near 14N117.5W, and is moving westward. The pressure gradient between the low and the ridge to the NW is producing fresh NE winds within 240 nm across the NW quadrant of the low. Seas are 8-9 ft in this quadrant. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere N of the 23N and W of 120W. Southerly swell supports seas of 7-9 ft from S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ across the Equator. For the forecast, the fresh trades will diminish slightly tonight through Tue night ahead of the approaching cold front. The front is expected to reach from near 30N131W to 22N140W by Tue morning, and from near 30N128W to 18N140W by Wed morning. Seas of 8-9 ft will persist across the W-central waters tonight, then subside through Tue, ahead of the expected large NW swell entering the NW waters. The southerly swell around 8 ft will linger from 06N southward across the Equator into Tue before subsiding. $$ Stripling