000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120915
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Nov 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure continues to  
build southward across northeastern Mexico, behind a cold front 
that is moving very slowly across the western Gulf of Mexico, and
is expected to reach the western Bay of Campeche this morning 
and then the central Bay of Campeche this afternoon. The high 
pressure behind the front has recently forced minimal gale-force 
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with these 
winds expected to persist through Wed night, with minor 
fluctuations. The front is expected to shift slightly eastward 
across the Gulf of Mexico Tue through Wed with winds increasing 
to near 40 kt across Tehuantepec at that time. Seas will build to
near 11 ft just downwind of Tehuantepec this afternoon then to 
near 12 ft Mon through Wed night. Seas may peak near 14 ft Tue 
night. NW seas generated across Tehuantepec will move into the 
outer offshore waters of Guatemala, where seas will build to 7 to
10 ft Tue through Wed. Gales are expected to end late Wed night,
with the strong gap winds gradually diminishing through the end 
of the work week.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74W to 11N82W to low 
pressure near 09.5N104.5W to low pressure near 12.5N115W to 
08N126W. The ITCZ extends from 08N126W to beyond 07.5N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 
08.5N E of 79.5W, from 07.5N to 13N between 84.5W and 92W, from 
05.5N to 11N between 92W and 109W, from 09N to 10.5N between 120W
and 123W, and from 07N to 10N W of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features Section above for details on a developing 
gale in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge SE
across the offshore waters of Baja California and to the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and lower pressure across NW Mexico is producing gentle to 
moderate northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters N of 
20N, and moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds throughout the 
Gulf of California. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail in mainly NW swell 
across the Baja offshore waters. However new NW swell has entered
the outer waters of Baja Norte raising seas to 8-9 ft. Seas are 
3-6 ft inside the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere S of 20N to Puerto Angel, where seas are 4-6 
ft in mixed S-SW and NW swell. Strong to minimal gale-force N 
gap winds have developed across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight 
and extend S to 13.5N, where seas are presently 7-10 ft.

For the forecast, gale-force winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will continue, with minor fluctuations, through Wed
night, then gradually diminish through the end of the week. Seas
will gradually build to 12 ft Mon through Wed night, and peak 
near 14 ft Tue night into early Wed. Meanwhile, moderate to 
locally fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of California, 
gradually diminishing from the entrance northward Sun. Gentle 
to moderate winds across the Baja offshore waters will diminish
Sun into early next week, as high pressure weakens to the NW. A 
series of pulses of NW swell are forecast to propagate across the
Baja California waters beginning today.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf
of Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are 
noted elsewhere N of 09N, along with seas of 4-5 ft. Gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds prevail to the south of the monsoon 
trough, along 09N, where seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell prevail.

For the forecast, NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region
will pulse to fresh to locally strong Sun night then diminish 
into mid-week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of 
09N with mainly moderate southerly winds S of 09N through early 
next week. Meanwhile, southerly swell will build across the 
waters N of 09N, with seas of 4 to 7 ft basin-wide Sun into early
next week. Looking ahead, seas may build to around 8 ft well 
offshore Guatemala Tue through Wed due to an extended Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1025 mb is centered N of the area near 35N132W,
and extends a broad ridge south and southeastward that dominates
the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. A fairly tight pressure
gradient is across these waters W of 120W, with fresh trades 
from 10N to 23N and W of about 120W. Seas of 8-10 ft in NE wind 
waves and NW swell are across those waters. A 1007 mb low center 
has reorganized near 12.5N115W, and is moving westward. The 
pressure gradient between the low and the ridge to the NW is 
producing fresh NE winds within 300 nm across the NW quadrant of 
the low. Seas are 8-9 ft in this quadrant. Gentle to moderate NE
to E winds are elsewhere N of the 23N and W of 120W. Southerly 
swell supports seas of 7-9 ft from S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ 
across the Equator. 

For the forecast, the fresh trades will diminish some Sun and 
Sun night. Seas of 8-10 ft will persist across the W-central 
waters today, then decay gradually through Sun night. The 
southerly swell around 8 ft will linger from 06N southward across
the Equator into early next week. Looking ahead, deepening low 
pressure will develop across the NE Pacific by Mon and move SSE, 
and remain just N of the area waters. Ahead of the low, a strong 
cold front will sink into the NW waters Mon afternoon to produce 
fresh to near gale force NW winds Mon afternoon through Wed,
possible reaching gale-force across the far NW waters Tue. 
Associated seas in excess of 12 ft will accompany the increasing 
winds, with seas building to around 20 ft across the far NW 
waters early Tue, then shifting slowly eastward through Wed.

$$
Stripling