000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120339 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Nov 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning...High pressure is building southward across northeastern Mexico, behind a cold front that is moving very slowly across the western Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to reach the western Bay of Campeche tonight and then the central Bay of Campeche Sun. Strong high pressure behind the front is currently forcing near gale-force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds expected to increase to gale-force tonight around midnight and persist through Tue night. The front is expected to shift slightly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico Tue through Wed with winds increasing to near 40 kt across Tehuantepec at that time. Seas will build to near 11 ft just downwind of Tehuantepec tonight then to near 12 ft Sun night through Tue. Seas may peak near 14 ft Tue night. Mon night through Tue, NW seas generated across Tehuantepec will move into the outer offshore waters of Guatemala, where seas will build to 7 to 10 ft. Gales are expected to end Wed night, with the strong gap winds gradually diminishing through the end of the work week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N73.5W to near 10N85W to low pressure near 08.5N105.5W to low pressure near 13N114.5W to 07.5N123W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N123W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 10.5N E of 96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 14N between 98W and 114W, and from 06.5N to 11N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on a developing gale in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California and to 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough extending northward to just SW of the Revillagigedo Islands is producing gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters N of 18N, and moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds throughout the Gulf of California. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail in mainly NW swell across the Baja offshore waters. However new NW swell has entered the outer waters of Baja Norte raising seas to 8 ft. Seas are 3-5 ft inside the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of 18N to Puerto Angel, where seas are 4-6 ft in mixed S-SW and NW swell. Strong to near gale-force N gap winds have developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today and extend S to 13.5N, where seas are presently 7-9 ft. For the forecast, winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale-force around midnight tonight then continue at gale-force through Wed with modest fluctuations. Seas will gradually build to 10 ft tonight, to near 12 ft Sun night, and peak near 14 ft Tue night into early Wed. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of California, gradually diminishing from the entrance northward through early Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Baja offshore waters through tonight before diminishing Sun into next week, as high pressure weakens to the NW. A series of pulses of NW swell are forecast to propagate across the Baja California waters beginning tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 09N, along with seas of 4-5 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail to the south of the monsoon trough, along 09N, where seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell prevail. For the forecast, NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight and Sun night then diminish into mid-week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of 09N with mainly moderate southerly winds S of 09N through early next week. Meanwhile, southerly swell will build across the waters N of 09N, with seas of 4 to 7 ft basin-wide Sun into early next week. Looking ahead, seas may build to around 8 ft well offshore Guatemala Tue through Wed due to an extended Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb is centered N of the area near 35N133W, and extends a broad ridge south and southeastward that dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. A fairly tight pressure gradient is across these waters W of 120W, with fresh to locally strong trades from 10N to 24N and W of about 120W. Seas of 8-11 ft in NE wind waves and NW swell are across those waters. A 1007 mb low center has reorganized near 13N114.5W, and is moving westward. The pressure gradient between the low and the ridge to the NW is producing fresh NE winds within 300 nm across the NW quadrant of the low. Seas are 8-9 ft in this quadrant. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere N of the 24N and W of 120W. Southerly swell supports seas of 7-8 ft from S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ across the Equator. For the forecast, the fresh trades will diminish some Sun and Sun night. Seas of 8-11 ft will persist across the W-central waters into early Sun, then decay gradually through Sun night. The southerly swell around 8 ft will linger from 06N southward across the Equator into early next week. Looking ahead, deepening low pressure will develop across the NE Pacific by Mon and move SSE, and remain just N of the area waters. Ahead of the low, a strong cold front will sink into the NW waters Mon afternoon to produce fresh to near gale force NW winds Mon night through Tue night. Associated seas in excess of 12 ft will accompany the increasing winds, with seas building to around 20 ft across the far NW waters early Tue, then shifting slowly eastward through Wed. $$ Stripling