000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110258
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Nov 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0220 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N73.5W to near 10N84W to low 
pressure near 08N102W to 06N110W, then resumes from 11.5N116W to
07.5N126W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N126W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N
to 08N between 80W and 93W, from 06N to 14.5N between 95W and 
121W, and from 06.5N to 10N between 130W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge SE
across the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough
extending northward to just S of the Revillagigedo Islands has
weakened slightly during the past 12 hours, with now mainly 
gentle to moderate winds N of 17N per afternoon ASCAT data, 
and moderate to locally fresh throughout the Gulf of California.
Seas of 5 to 7 ft in mainly NW swell prevail across the Baja
offshore waters, and 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Cailfornia. Light to 
gentle winds prevail S of 17N, except fresh N winds in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Seas are 3-6 ft S of 17N in mixed S-SW and NW 
swell.

For the forecast, winds will increase to strong in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec this evening, then strong to near gale force late 
tonight/early Sat through Sun morning, as a cold front moves
across the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas will gradually build 
8-10 ft there. Winds are then forecast to pulse to gale force 
each evening and night, starting Sun evening and continuing 
through early next week. Winds may peak around 40 kt Tue and Tue
night. Seas will build 10-14 ft Tue night into early Wed. 
Meanwhile, gentle to moderate northerly winds will continue
across the Baja offshore waters through Sat night before
diminishing Sun into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds 
are forecast in the Gulf of California, gradually diminishing 
from the entrance northward through early Sun. Moderate winds 
will pulse to fresh near Cabo Corrientes Sun night. A series of 
NW swell events are forecast to propagate across the Baja 
California waters beginning Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo 
region with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted 
elsewhere N of 07N, along with seas of 3-4 ft. Moderate S to SW 
winds prevail to the south of the monsoon trough, along with 
seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo
region will pulse to fresh tonight and Sat night, then fresh to 
strong Sun night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N 
of 08N with mainly moderate southerly winds S of 08N through 
early next week. Meanwhile, southerly swell will build across the
waters N of 08N, with seas of 4-7 ft prevailing basin-wide this 
weekend into early next week. Looking ahead, seas will build to 
around 8 ft well offshore Guatemala Tue night through Wed due to
a nearby Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered just NW of the area and an accompanying 
ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. A fairly
tight pressure gradient is across these waters W of 122W, with 
fresh to strong trades from 09N to 24N and W of about 122W. Seas
of 8-11 ft in fresh NE wind waves and NW swell are across those 
waters, with recent altimeter data measuring a peak of 12 ft
near 10N 137W. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere N of the 
monsoon trough /ITCZ and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail elsewhere, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Southerly swell 
supports seas of 6-8 ft from around the Equator elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support fresh to
strong winds in the trade wind belt tonight, diminishing to 
moderate to fresh Sat morning, then diminishing further Sun and 
Sun night. Meanwhile, seas of 8-11 ft will persist across the 
W-central waters into early Sun, gradually decaying through Sun 
night. The southerly swell around 8 ft will linger from the 
Equator southward into early next week. Looking ahead, fresh to 
near gale force NW winds associated with a low pressure system, 
forecast to remain just N of 30N, and an attendant cold front, 
will move into the NW waters Mon through Wed night. Winds around 
gale force will extend southward to near 30N. Associated seas in
excess of 12 ft will accompany the increasing winds, with seas 
around 20 ft expected Tue afternoon through Wed.

$$
Stripling