000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102132 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Nov 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to low pressure near 07.5N102W to 07N108W, then resumes from 14N112W to 10N126W. The ITCZ extends from 10N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 78W and 108W, and from 07N to 13N between 110W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 10N between 130W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough extending northward to just S of the Revillagigedo Islands has weakened slightly with now mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 17N per recent ASCAT data, locally fresh in the northern Gulf of California. Seas of 5-7 ft in mainly NW swell are across this same area, except 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Cailfornia. Light to gentle winds prevail S of 17N, except moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 3-5 ft S of 17N in mixed S-SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds will increase to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening, then strong to near gale force late tonight/early Sat through Sun morning with seas gradually building to 8-10 ft there. Winds are then forecast to pulse to gale force starting Sun evening and continuing through early next week. Winds may diminish below gale force for several hours during the day Mon before increasing back to gale force Mon night and may peak around 40 kt Tue and Tue night. Seas may build to 12-14 ft Tue night into early Wed. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds are forecast in the Gulf of California, gradually diminishing from the entrance northward through early Sun. Fresh winds may pulse near Cabo Corrientes Sun night. A series of NW swell events are forecast to propagate across the Baja California waters beginning Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 07N, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are S of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell. For the forecast, NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to moderate to fresh tonight and Sat night, then fresh to strong Sun night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of 08N with mainly moderate southerly winds S of 08N through early next week. Meanwhile, southerly swell will build across the waters N of 08N, with seas of 4-7 ft basin-wide this weekend into early next week. Looking ahead, seas may build to around 8 ft well offshore Guatemala Tue night due to a nearby Gulf of Tehuantepec possible gale force gap wind event. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered NW of the area and an accompanying ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. A fairly tight pressure gradient is across these waters with fresh to strong trades from 09N to 24N and W of about 120W. Seas of 8-11 ft in fresh NE wind waves and NW swell are across those waters. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough /ITCZ and W of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Southerly swell supports seas of 6-8 ft from around the Equator elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the trade wind belt tonight, diminishing to moderate to fresh Sat morning, then diminishing further Sun and Sun night. Meanwhile, seas of 8-11 ft will persist across the W-central waters into early Sun, decaying through Sun night. The southerly swell around 8 ft will linger from the Equator southward into early next week. Looking ahead, fresh to near gale force NW winds associated with a low pressure area, forecast to remain just N of 30N, and an attendant cold front will move into the NW waters Mon through Wed night. Winds around gale force will be close to 30N. Associated seas in excess of 12 ft will accompany the increasing winds, expected to peak around 20 ft Tue afternoon through Wed. $$ Lewitsky