000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101511 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Nov 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to low pressure near 08N99W to low pressure near 14N112W to 09N126W. The ITCZ extends from 09N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 77W and 86W, from 05N to 14.5N between 94W and 108W, from 12N to 18N between 108W and 112W, from 08N to 12N between 113W and 120W, and from 06N to 11N between 126W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California and SW Mexico. A relatively tight pressure gradient is from near 18N northward due to the ridge and 1007 mb low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough near 08N99W. This gradient is supporting moderate to fresh winds across those waters, along with seas of 5-7 ft, except 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Cailfornia. Light to gentle winds prevail S of 18N, except moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 3-5 ft S of 18N in mixed S-SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds will increase to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early this afternoon, then strong to near gale force late tonight/early Sat through Sun morning with seas gradually building to 8-10 ft there. Winds are then forecast to pulse to gale force starting Sun evening and continuing through early next week. Wind may diminish below gale force for several hours during the day Mon before increasing back to gale force Mon night, peaking around 40 kt Tue and Tue night. Seas will build to around 12 ft by Tue night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds offshore Baja California will diminish tonight as high pressure NW of the area weakens. Similar winds will persist in the Gulf of California through Sat night, diminishing across the Gulf by late Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds may pulse near Cabo Corrientes Sun evening, then pulse to moderate to fresh thereafter. A series of NW swell events are forecast to propagate across the Baja California waters beginning Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are S of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell. For the forecast, broad low pressure will prevail across the SW Caribbean and Central America through the middle of next week. Moderate NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to strong Sun morning and again Sun night. Light to gentle winds will persist elsewhere N of the monsoon trough with mainly moderate southerly winds S of the monsoon trough through early next week. Meanwhile, southerly swell will build across the waters N of the monsoon trough with seas of 4-7 ft basin-wide this weekend into early next week. Looking ahead, seas may build to around 8 ft well offshore Guatemala Tue night due to a nearby Gulf of Tehuantepec possible gale force gap wind event. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered NW of the area and an accompanying ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. A fairly tight pressure gradient is across these waters with fresh to strong trades from 10N to 25N and W of about 123W. Seas of 8-11 ft in fresh NE wind waves and NW swell are across those waters. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough /ITCZ and W of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Southerly swell supports seas of 6-8 ft from around the Equator elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support fresh to strong trades N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to around 25N and W of 115W through tonight, diminishing to moderate to fresh Sat morning, then diminishing further Sun and Sun night. Meanwhile, seas of 8-11 ft will persist across the W-central waters into early Sun, decaying through Sun night. The southerly swell around 8 ft will linger from the Equator southward into early next week. Looking ahead, fresh to near gale force NW winds associated with a low pressure area, forecast to remain just N of 30N, and an attendant cold front will move into the NW waters Mon night through Tue night. Associated seas in excess of 12 ft will accompany these winds, expected to peak around 20 ft Tue afternoon and evening. $$ Lewitsky