000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092025
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 09N104W to low pres near 16N110W 1010 mb to 12N119W. 
The ITCZ extends from 10N126W to 09N134W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N 
to 19N between 105W and 113W, and from 05N to 11N between 117W 
and 126W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 01N to
07N E of 82W, from 05N to 09N between 95W and 105W, and from 02N
to 11N between 129W and 140W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure continues to be located well NW of the area
and extends a ridge across the Baja California waters. Recent
scatterometer data confirm the continuation of gentle to moderate
N to NW winds along the peninsula offshore waters where 5 to 8 
ft seas prevail. In the Gulf of California, a tigher pressure 
gradient is leading to the continuation of fresh to strong NW 
winds and seas to 6 ft N of 29N and moderate to fresh winds and 
seas to 3 ft along the remainder gulf. Furthermore, moderate NE 
winds are ongoing at the entrance of the gulf, extending to the 
offshore waters of Jalisco with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Light
to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft in mixed swell are in 
the remainder S and SW Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate northerly winds across the 
Baja California offshore waters will diminish to light to gentle
speeds by Mon morning, however ongoing NW swell will subside by Fri
morning. New NW swell is forecast to enter the offshore waters N
of Punta Eugenia Sat night with seas to 9 ft, and spread SE to
Cabo San Lucas by Tue morning. Fresh to locally strong northerly
winds across the Gulf of California will diminish this evening.
However, moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail along the gulf
through Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will begin on
Sat across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front moves across 
the Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions are possible to begin Sun  
and continue through at least mid-week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo 
with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 4 
ft in S to SW swell are noted across the rest of the Central 
America offshore waters and offshore Colombia. South of the 
monsoon trough and in the offshore waters between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S-SW winds are ongoing  
along with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed swell.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo through Mon. Light to gentle variable winds 
will prevail elsewhere in the Central America offshore waters 
through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds will continue 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through today, 
becoming gentle to moderate by the weekend and continuing through
mid-week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure located N of the area extends a ridge 
across the northern forecast waters, N of 22N W of 115W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated
with the ITCZ and the remnants of Pilar supports a broad area of
fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 27N and W of 
120W. A large area of NW swell is within this same area of fresh
winds along with 8 to 10 ft seas. South of the ITCZ between 110W
and 130W, moderate to locally fresh SE winds are noted with 7 to
9 ft seas. A 1010 mb low pressure, former T.S. Pilar, is located
near 15N123W with isolated showers. Another 1010 mb low near 
14N110W is also generating scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection in its vicinity. Otherwise, southerly swell continues
to move into the southern forecast waters, S of 05N between 105W
and 126W. 

For the forecast, the strong high pressure will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the waters N of 15N and W of 110W
over the next few days. This will support fresh to strong trade 
winds through Fri night. Winds will begin to diminish to moderate
to locally fresh on Sat into Sun as a weakening front approaches
the northern forecast waters. By early next week, winds will
become gentle to moderate over most of the area. The NW swell 
event will begin to subside slightly through tonight. Another set
of swell will move across the waters by Fri into Sat with the 
weakening cold front. Another set of swell will potentially move 
across the waters by early next week. Meanwhile, southerly swell 
will start to subside today, but continue lingering S of 00N 
through the weekend. 

$$
Ramos