000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091517
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Nov 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N83W to 08N105W to low pres near 14N110W 1010 mb to 11N120W. 
The ITCZ extends from 11N120W to 09N130W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N 
to 20N between 105W and 112W, from 06N to 11N between 116W and 
124W, and from 03N to 09N between 131W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure continues to be located well N of the area
and extends a ridge across the Baja California waters. Moderate
to fresh winds are noted across most of these waters, in addition
to the Gulf of California. NW swell continues to extend across
the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro, bringing seas ranging 8
to 9 ft. South of Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas, seas are 6
to 8 ft. Scatterometer data tonight showed fresh to locally 
strong winds are noted south of the Gulf of California and Cabo 
San Lucas with seas near 8 ft in this area. Moderate to locally 
fresh N winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 5 
ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the Mexico 
offshore waters with seas 4 to 6 ft within mixed swell. No 
significant convection is noted at this time. 

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the
Baja California offshore waters will diminish by Sun, becoming 
gentle to locally moderate. The NW swell will subside across the 
Baja California Norte offshore waters by Fri morning. Fresh to 
locally strong northerly winds across the Gulf of California will
diminish tonight. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will 
begin on Sat across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front moves
across the Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions are possible Sun into
Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo 
with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 4 
ft in S to SW swell are noted across the rest of the Central 
America offshore waters and offshore Colombia. South of the 
monsoon trough and in the offshore waters between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S-SW winds prevail along 
with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed swell.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo through this morning and again during the 
weekend. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere in
the Central America offshore waters through the weekend. Moderate
to locally fresh S-SW winds will continue between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands through Fri, becoming gentle to moderate by
the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure located N of the area extends a ridge 
across the northern forecast waters, N of 15N W of 117W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated
with the ITCZ and the remnants of Pilar supports a broad area of
fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 29N and W of 
115W. A large area of NW swell is within this same area of fresh 
winds along with 8 to 10 ft seas per overnight altimeter data. 
South of the ITCZ between 110W and 130W, moderate to locally 
fresh SE winds are noted with 7 to 9 ft seas. A 1010 mb low 
pressure, former T.S. Pilar, is located near 15N123W with some
scattered moderate convection noted within 50 nm of the low.
Another 1010 mb low near 14N110W is also generating scattered 
moderate convection in its vicinity. Otherwise, southerly swell 
continues to move into the southern forecast waters, S of 05N 
between 105W and 126W. 

For the forecast, the strong high pressure will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the waters N of 15N and W of 110W
over the next few days. This will support fresh to strong trade 
winds through Fri night. Winds will begin to diminish to moderate
to locally fresh on Sat into Sun as a weakening front approaches
the northern forecast waters. By early next week, winds will
become gentle to moderate over most of the area. The NW swell 
event will begin to subside slightly through tonight. Another set
of swell will move across the waters by Fri into Sat with the 
weakening cold front. Another set of swell will potentially move 
across the waters by early next week. Meanwhile, southerly swell 
will start to subside today, but continue lingering S of 00N 
through the weekend. 

$$
Ramos