000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082206
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N84W to 11N100W to 11N115W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
offshore waters of Colombia and Panama, and within 105 nm either
side of the ITCZ. A 1009 mb low is centered near 12N108W and is
generating scattered moderate convection from 08N to 18N between
105W and 112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished to moderate to
locally fresh and seas have subside to 5 ft. Strong high 
pressure of 1031 mb located well N of the area near 37N131W 
extends a ridge across the waters W of the Baja California 
peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure along W Mexico continue to support moderate to fresh NW
to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, except
for localy strong winds in the offshore waters S of Cabo San
Lazaro. Northwest swell with seas to 9 ft continue to spread SE 
across the Baja California offshore waters. Light to gentle
variable winds are ongoing in the SW Mexican offshore waters 
with seas to 6 ft in mixed swell. Otherwise, a strong gradient 
between the ridge to the west and a pair of low pressure centers 
over southern Arizona is supporting fresh NW winds along the  
Gulf of California with seas to 5 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the 
Baja California offshore waters will diminish to gentle to 
moderate speeds Thu morning and prevail through Sun. The NW 
swell event will continue across the waters W of Baja California 
through Thu before subsiding below 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong 
northerly winds will continue along the Gulf of California 
through Thu night, diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds Fri 
and continuing through late Sun. Looking ahead, the next 
Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected during the upcoming 
weekend as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Gale 
conditions are possible Sun night into Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh winds are pulsing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and 
seas to 4 ft are elsewhere across the Central America offshore 
waters. South of the monsoon trough and in the offshore waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate 
S-SW winds prevail along with 5 to 6 ft seas in mixed swell.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo through Thu morning and again during the 
weekend. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere in
the Central America offshore waters through the weekend. Gentle 
to moderate S-SW winds will continue between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands through late Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1031 mb located N of the area near 
37N131W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters, 
particularly N of 16N W of 114W. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ and the
remnants of Pilar supports a broad area of fresh to locally strong
NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 26N and W of 120W. A large area 
of NW swell is within this same area of fresh winds along with 8
to 10 ft seas per recent altimeter data. South of the ITCZ 
between 110W and 130W, moderate to fresh SE winds are noted with
7 to 9 ft seas. A 1010 mb low pressure, former T.S. Pilar, is 
located near 14N122W with no convection at the time. However, a 
1009 mb low near 12N108W is generating scattered moderate convection
in its vicinity. Otherwise, southerly swell continues to move 
into the southern forecast waters, S of 03N between 106W and 
120W. 

For the forecast, the strong high pressure will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the waters N of 15N and W of 110W 
supporting fresh to strong trade winds through Fri night. Winds
will begin to diminish to moderate to locally fresh on Sat into
Sun. The NW swell event will continue to propagate across the 
waters as far south as 05N and W of 115W today. This swell will 
begin to subside slightly by Thu until a new swell set enters 
the waters by the weekend. Southerly swell will spread northward
through the weekend. The swell will reach as far north as 03N 
bringing seas of 8 ft.

$$
Ramos