000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081602
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Nov 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N84W to 10N100W to 12N114W. The ITCZ extends from 09N124W to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 08N to 16N between 104W and 111W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 04N to 10N between 122W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
and downwind to about 13N with seas to 6 ft. Strong high 
pressure of 1031 mb located well N of the area near 38N132W 
extends a ridge across the waters W of the Baja California 
peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure along W Mexico supports moderate to fresh NW to N winds
across the offshore waters of Baja California. Northwest swell 
is moving across the northern Baja California offshore waters, N
of Cabo San Lazaro supporting 8 to 10 ft seas. Seas are 5 to 7 
ft between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas offshore waters. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the SW Mexican offshore 
waters with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell. Otherwise, a strong
gradient between the ridge to the west and low pressure over SW
Arizona is leading to ongoing fresh to locally strong NW winds 
and seas to 5 ft in the northern Gulf of California N of 28N  
along with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere
in the Gulf of California with 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish in the Tehuantepec
region this evening. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds across most
of the Baja California offshore waters will diminish to gentle to
moderate speeds Thu morning and prevail through the end of the
weekend. The NW swell event will continue across the waters W 
of Baja California through Thu before subsiding below 8 ft. 
Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will continue along the 
Gulf of California through Thu night, diminishing to gentle to
moderate speeds Fri and continuing through late Sun. Looking 
ahead, the next Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected during the
upcoming weekend as a cold front moves across the Gulf of 
Mexico. Gale conditions are possible Sun night into Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo 
with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 4
ft are elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters.
South of the monsoon trough and in the offshore waters between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S-SW winds
prevail along with 5 to 6 ft seas in mixed swell.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo through Thu morning and again during the 
weekend. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere in
the Central America offshore waters through the weekend. Gentle 
to moderate S-SW winds will continue between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands through late Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1031 mb located N of the area near 
38N132W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters, 
particularly N of 18N W of 115W. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ supports an area of 
fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 30N and W of 120W.
A large area of NW swell covers the area N of 07N and W of 120W,
with seas 8 to 10 ft. South of the ITCZ between 110W and 130W, 
moderate to fresh winds are noted with seas 6 to 8 ft. A 1010 mb
low pressure, former T.S. Pilar, is located near 14N121W with no  
convection at the time. However, a 1008 mb low near 12N108W is
generating scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in
its vicinity. Otherwise, southerly swell continues to move into 
the southern forecast waters, S of 03N between 106W and 120W. 

For the forecast, the strong high pressure will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the waters N of 15N and W of 110W 
supporting fresh to strong trade winds through Fri night. Winds
will begin to diminish to moderate to locally fresh on Sat into
Sun. The NW swell event will continue to propagate across the 
waters as far south as 05N and W of 115W today. This swell will 
begin to subside slightly by Thu until a new swell set enters 
the waters by the weekend. Southerly swell will spread northward
through the weekend. The swell will reach as far north as 03N 
bringing seas of 8 ft.

$$
Ramos