000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080951
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N84W to 10N100W to 13N120W. The ITCZ extends from 09N124W to 
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N 
to 12N between 77W and 94W and from 07N to 16N between 105W and 
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Scatterometer from overnight depicted fresh to strong N winds 
persisting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 
15N. Seas are up to 6 ft within these winds. Strong high pressure
of 1031 mb located well N of the area near 40N132W extends a 
ridge across the waters W of the Baja California peninsula. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over 
the Gulf of California supports moderate to fresh NW to N winds 
across the offshore waters of Baja California N of 25N. Gentle 
to moderate NW to N winds prevail across the rest of the Baja 
California offshore waters. Northerly swell with seas 8 to 10 ft 
is moving across the northern Baja California offshore waters, N 
of 25N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the rest of the Baja California
offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the 
southern Mexico offshore waters, mostly in the Oaxaca and 
Guerrero waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas 
are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell in the southern Mexico offshore 
waters, with 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish in the Tehuantepec
region later today. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will 
continue across most of the Baja California offshore waters 
through Sat. The NW swell event will propagate across the waters 
W of Baja California through Thu. Seas will build to 8 to 10 ft N
of Punta Eugenia, and 6 to 8 ft between Cabo San Lazaro and 
Punta Eugenia. The swell will reach Cabos San Lucas by Wed night 
into Thu, bringing seas near 8 ft. High pressure situated over 
the Great Basin of the United States will bring fresh to strong 
northerly winds across portions of the Gulf of California Wed 
night into Thu, with seas building 4 to 6 ft. Looking ahead, the 
next Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected during the upcoming 
weekend as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Gale 
conditions are possible Sun night into Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo 
with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal 
winds prevail across the offshore waters S of 03N while mainly 
light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 03N. Seas of 4 to 
6 ft are observed across the offshore waters. Cross equatorial SW
swell dominates the area. Thunderstorms are noted moving off the
coast of Nicaragua eastward to Colombia. 

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night and again during the weekend.
Winds will increase across the South American offshore waters 
on Thu and persist through Sun, becoming moderate to locally 
fresh. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas in 
primarily in SW swell will persist elsewhere. A new set of long 
period SW swell is expected to reach the waters between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands by Thu night into Fri, building seas to
7 or 8 ft through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1030 mb located N of the area near 
40N132W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters, 
particularly N of 14N W of 115W. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ supports an area of 
fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 30N and W of 120W.
A large area of NW swell covers the area N of 06N and W of 120W,
with seas 8 to 10 ft. South of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh winds
are noted with seas 6 to 8 ft. A 1007 mb low pressure, former 
T.S. Pilar, is located near 13N121W. This system is producing 
bursts of deep convection within 75 nm of the low, and fresh 
winds with seas of 8 ft. Southerly swell is beginning to move 
into the southern forecast waters, S of 03N between 106W and 
120W. 

For the forecast, the strong high pressure will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the waters N of 15N and W of 110W 
supporting fresh to strong trade winds through Fri night. Winds
will begin to diminish to moderate to locally fresh on Sat into
Sun. The NW swell event will continue to propagate across the 
waters as far south as 05N and W of 115W today.This swell will 
begin to subside slightly by Thu until a new swell set enters 
the waters by the weekend. Southerly swell will spread northward
through the weekend. The swell will reach as far north as 03N 
bringing seas of 8 ft.

$$
AReinhart