000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072154
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Gulf of Fonseca near 13N88W 
to 13N92W to 10N110W to 09N110W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N110W
to 06N130W to beyond 07N140W. A cluster of numerous moderate to 
isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 12N between 
118W and 121W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to
15N between 105W and 118W, and from 06N to 10N between 121W and 
130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A partial ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong N winds across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 15N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft
within these winds. Strong high pressure of 1030 mb located N of
the area near 36N140W extends a ridge across the waters W of the
Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and a meandering trough over the Gulf of California 
supports moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the offshore 
waters of northern Baja California, with gentle to moderate NW to
N winds elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters. 
Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 7 ft in NW swell N of 
Punta Eugenia. Elsewhere, mainly light winds prevail across the 
rest of the Mexico offshore waters, including the central and 
southern parts of the Gulf of California. Gentle to locally 
moderate W to NW are noted in the northern part of the Gulf 
likely associated with a dissipating front boundary. Seas are up 
to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, with the exception of 3 to 4 
ft near the entrance to the Gulf. 

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to diminish in 
the Tehuantepec region through Wed. A ridge will dominate the 
offshore wasters of Baja California bringing moderate to fresh 
NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro the remainder of the work-
week. Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of Cabo San Lazaro.
A NW swell event will propagate across the waters W of Baja
California tonight and Wed. seas will build to 8 to 10 ft N of
Punta Eugenia, and 6 to 8 ft between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta
Eugenia. This swell event will reach the waters S of los Cabos
Wed night into Thu briefly building seas to 8 ft. High pressure
situated over the Great Basin of the United States will bring 
fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the northern Gulf 
of California Wed night into Thu, with seas building 4 to 6 ft. 
Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected 
during the upcoming weekend as a cold front moves across the Gulf
of Mexico. Gale conditions are possible Sun night into Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore
waters S of 06N while mainly light to gentle winds are noted 
elsewhere N of 06N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed across the 
offshore waters. Cross equatorial SW swell dominates the area. 

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo tonight and Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas in primarily in SW swell will persist
elsewhere. A new set of long period SW swell is expected to 
reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Thu
night into Fri, building seas to 7 or 8 ft through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned, a strong high pressure of 1030 mb located
N of the area near 36N140W extends a ridge across the northern 
forecast waters, particularly N of 20N W of 110W. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ 
supports an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the ITCZ 
to 30N and W of 130W. Satellite derived wind data confirmed the 
presence of these winds. Seas are 8 to 11 ft N of 25N within 
these winds based on an altimeter pass. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are 
noted elsewhere. A 1008 mb low pressure, former T.S. Pilar, is 
located near 13N118W. This system is producing bursts of deep 
convection, and fresh to strong winds with seas of 8 to 9 ft.  

For the forecast, the strong high pressure will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the waters N of 15N and W of 110W 
supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds through at least
Fri. A NW swell event will continue to propagate across the 
waters N of 06N W of 115W by Wed morning. Southerly swell will 
move into the southern waters by tonight and spread northward  
through the end of the week. The swell will reach as far north as
05N bringing seas of 8 to 9 ft.

$$
GR