107 
AXPZ20 KNHC 070946
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Nov 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N84W to 08N96W to low pres near 12N117W 1008 mb to 07N125W. 
The ITCZ extends from 07N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 17N between 96W and 
127W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 8
ft. Meanwhile, a ridge continues to dominate the offshore waters
of Baja California. This is producing moderate to fresh winds off
the Baja California Norte coast, with gentle to moderate NW to N
winds elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas
range 5 to 6 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds 
prevail across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, including 
the Gulf of California. Seas range 4 to 7 ft within mixed swell
over the southern Mexico offshore waters. Seas are up to 3 ft in
the Gulf of California with the exception of 3 to 5 ft near the 
entrance to the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the 
offshore waters of Oaxaca and Guerrero. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong in the Tehuantepec region
will diminish by through Wed. Seas generated by this gap wind 
event will gradually subside on Tue. Meanwhile, weakening cold 
front will approach Baja California Norte today and will bring 
fresh to locally strong NW to N winds and moderate to rough 
seas. These marine conditions will reach the waters north of 
Punta Eugenia tonight, and north of Cabo San Lazaro later on Wed.
High pressure situated over the Great Basin of the United States
will bring fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the 
northern Gulf of California Wed through Fri with seas building 4 
to 6 ft. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore
waters S of 02N while mainly light to gentle winds are noted 
elsewhere N of 02N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed across the 
offshore waters. Cross equatorial SW swell combined with 
northerly swell generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec dominates 
the area. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coast of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo Tue night and Wed night, then once again on 
Fri. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas in 
primarily in SW swell will persist elsewhere. A new set of long 
period SW swell is expected to reach the waters between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands by Thu night into Fri, building seas to
7 or 8 ft through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating cold front extends across the NW waters from 
30N121W to 23N140W. Moderate to fresh N winds are behind the 
front. Seas are ranging 8 to 10 ft behind the front within NW
swell. Elsewhere, a ridge extends across the region north of 19N
and W of 118W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures near the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong NE 
to E winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 130W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft
within these winds. A 1008 mb low pres is located near 12N117W 
along the monsoon trough and is producing moderate to fresh winds
and seas around 8 ft. Elsewhere E of 130W, winds are moderate to
locally fresh with seas 5 to 8 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas to 8 ft in 
mixed swell. 

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate as it approaches
Baja California Norte this morning. The swell event will 
continue to spread across the waters N of 06N W of 115W by Wed 
morning. Strong high pressure will follow the front, bringing an
increase in the trade wind flow through at least Fri. Southerly 
swell will move into the southern waters by Tue night and 
continue propagating north through the end of the week. The swell
will reach as far north as 02N and bringing seas 8 to 9 ft.

$$
AReinhart