000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070328
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Nov 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from southern Costa Rica near 09N83W
to 08N96W to low pres near 11N116W 1007 mb to 07N130W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 112W and 128W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 8
to 9 ft. Swell with seas to 8 ft are still reaching as far south
as 11N102W. Meanwhile, a ridge continues to dominate the 
offshore waters of Baja California, producing gentle to moderate 
NW to N winds with seas 4 to 6 ft. An area of gentle to moderate
northerly winds is noted across the southern Gulf of California 
reaching San Jose del Cabo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds 
prevail across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, including 
the remainder of the Gulf of California. Seas range 4 to 6 ft 
within mixed swell, and seas are up to 3 ft in the Gulf of 
California with the exception of 3 to 5 ft near the entrance to 
the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the offshore
waters of Guerrero. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected in
the in the Tehuantepec region through Wed. Seas generated by 
this gap wind event will gradually subside on Tue. Looking ahead,
a weakening cold front will approach Baja California Norte on 
Tue followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds and 
moderate to rough seas. These marine conditions will reach the 
waters north of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed, and north of 
Cabo San Lazaro later on Wed. High pressure situated over the 
Great Basin of the United States will bring fresh to locally 
strong northerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Wed
through Fri with seas building 4 to 6 ft. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore
waters S of 06N while mainly light to gentle winds are noted N 
of 06N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed across the offshore 
waters. Cross equatorial SW swell combined with northerly swell 
generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec dominates the area.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong 
speeds across the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night and Wed, and again 
on Fri. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas in 
primarily in SW swell will persist elsewhere. A new set of long 
period SW swell is expected to reach the waters between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands by Thu night into Fri, building seas 
to 7 or 8 ft through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating cold front extends across the NW waters from 
30N125W to 24N140W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are behind
the front. Seas are likely ranging 8 to 11 ft behind the front. 
Elsewhere, a ridge extends across the region north of 17N and W 
of 115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures near the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to locally 
strong NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 23N and W of 120W. Seas 
are 7 to 9 ft within these winds. South of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas to 8 ft in 
mixed swell. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will weaken as 
it approaches Baja California Norte by Tue morning. The swell
event will continue to follow the front and spread across the
waters N of 06N W of 115W by Wed morning as it also merges with 
the swell along the trade wind zone. Strong high pressure will 
follow the front, bringing an increase in the trade wind flow 
tonight through at least Thu. Southerly swell will move into the 
southern waters by Tue night and continue propagating north 
through the end of the week. The swell will reach as far north as
02N and bringing seas 8 to 9 ft.

$$
AReinhart