000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062117
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Nov 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from southern Costa Rica near 09.5N83W
to 07N95W to 1008 mb low pressure near 11N115W to 07N130W. The 
ITCZ continues from 07N130W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted E of the above mentioned 
low from 07N to 12N between 110W and 115W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 06N to 14N 
between 95W and 125W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong N to NE 
winds across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 12N100W.
So, the Gale Warning is allowed to expire. The strongest winds of
25 to 30 kt are noted N of 14N between 94.5W and 96W. Seas are 8
to 11 ft within these wind speeds.

A ridge continues to dominate the offshore waters of Baja California,
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with seas 3 to 5 ft 
based on an altimeter pass. An area of gentle to moderate northerly
winds is noted across the southern Gulf of California reaching 
San Jose del Cabo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail across
the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, including the remainder
of the Gulf of California. Seas range 4 to 6 ft within mixed 
swell, and seas are up to 3 ft in the Gulf of California with the
exception of 3 to 5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected in
the in the Tehuantepec region through late Tue. Seas generated by
this gap wind event will gradually subside on Tue. Looking 
ahead, a weakening cold front will approach Baja California Norte
on Tue followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds and 
moderate to rough seas. These marine conditions will reach the 
waters north of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed, and north of 
Cabo San Lazaro later on Wed. High pressure situated over the 
Great Basin of the United States will bring fresh to locally 
strong northerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Wed
through Fri with seas building 4 to 6 ft. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore
waters S of 06N while mainly light to gentle winds are noted N 
of 06N. Seas have subsided across the offshore waters of Guatemala
W of 93W to less than 8 ft as the gale force winds in the Tehuantepec
area have ended. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are observed elsewhere across
the offshore waters. Cross equatorial SW swell combined with northerly
swell generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec dominates the area.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the Gulf
of Papagayo Tue night and Wed, and again on Fri. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas in primarily in SW swell will 
persist elsewhere. A new set of long period SW swell is expected
to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
toward the end of the work-week building seas to 7 or 8 ft.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across the NW waters from 30N128W to 25N140W.
Moderate to locally fresh N winds are behind the front. A recent
altimeter pass indicates seas of up 12 ft in the wake of the 
front near 30N140W. Elsewhere, a ridge extends across the region
north of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ supports an area of 
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W
of 130W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft within these winds. South of the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail with 
seas to 8 ft in mixed swell. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will weaken as 
it approaches Baja California Norte by Tue morning. A new swell 
event will follow the front. As this feature moves to the 
southeast, a large area of 8 to 9 ft seas will dominate most of 
the waters N of 07N W of 115W by Wed morning as it merges with 
the swell along the trade wind zone. Strong high pressure will 
follow the front, bringing an increase in the trade wind flow 
tonight through at least Thu. Southerly swell will move into the 
southern waters by Tue night and continue propagating north 
through the end of the week. The swell will reach as far north as
02N and bringing seas 8 to 9 ft.

$$
GR