000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061544
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge continues to extend
across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains. This is
supporting minimal gale force northerly winds across the 
Tehuantepec region with maximum seas of 12 ft. Seas generated 
from this gap wind event are propagating well away from the Gulf 
of Tehunatepec, with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching as far 
south as 11N between 94W and 99W. Winds are forecast to diminish
below gale force later this morning, but fresh to strong gap 
winds and moderate to rough seas will persist until Tue.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N100W to 1007 mb low
pressure near 11n115w to 07N129W. The ITCZ continues from 
07N129W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted E of the above mentioned low from 08N to 12N
between 110W and 115W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen elsewhere from 06N to 14N between 95W and 
125W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A ridge continues to dominate the Baja California offshore
waters. This is producing gentle to moderate winds across the 
Baja California offshores with seas 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle winds are noted across the rest of the Mexico offshore 
waters, including the Gulf of California. Seas range 4 to 6 ft 
within mixed swell, and seas are up to 3 ft in the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, the gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region
will end later this morning. The associated rough seas will 
continue to propagate over the waters off eastern Oaxaca and 
western Chiapas today into Tue. The winds and seas will gradually
diminish through Tue night off southern Mexico. Looking ahead, a
weakening cold front will approach Baja California Norte on Tue 
followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds and moderate to
rough seas. These marine conditions will reach the waters north 
of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed, and north of Cabo San Lazaro
later on Wed. High pressure situated over the Great Basin of the
United States will bring fresh to locally strong northerly winds
across the northern Gulf of California Wed through Fri with seas
building 4 to 6 ft. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore
waters S of 08N while mainly light to gentle winds are noted N 
of 08N. Seas range 6 to 8 ft across the offshore waters of 
Guatemala W of 95W due to the Tehuantepec gap wind event. Seas 
of 3 to 5 ft are observed elsewhere across the waters. NW swell
is noted across the Central American offshore waters from
Guatemala through Costa Rica, and mostly S swell east of Costa
Rica and across the South American offshore waters. 

For the forecast, the moderate to rough seas off Guatemala due 
to swell generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is
expected to subside this morning. Winds will pulse to fresh
speeds across the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night through Thu morning.
Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas in primarily
in SW swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across the NW waters from 30N130W to 
26N140W. Gentle to moderate N winds are noted behind the front 
with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, a ridge extends across the region 
north of 17N and W of 115W. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ supports an area of 
moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 18N and W of 130W. Seas
are near 8 ft within these winds. South of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas to 8 ft within
mixed swell. 

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from 30N116W to 
24N140W by early Mon morning while weakening. A new swell event 
will follow the front building seas of up to 11 ft by this 
afternoon. As the front moves to the southeast, a large area of 
8 to 9 ft seas will dominate most of the waters N of 07N W of 
115W by Wed morning as it merges with the swell along the trade 
wind zone. Strong high pressure will follow the front, bringing 
an increase in the trade wind flow Mon night through at least 
Thu. Southerly swell will move into the southern waters by Tue 
night and continue propagating north through the end of the week.
The swell will reach as far north as 02N and bringing seas 8 to 
9 ft. 

$$
GR