000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060935 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Nov 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge continues to extend across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains. This is supporting minimal gale force northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region with maximum seas of 11 ft. Seas generated from this gap wind event are propagating well away from the Gulf of Tehunatepec, with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 08N98W based on an altimeter pass from tonight. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force this morning, but fresh to strong gap winds and moderate to rough seas will persist until Tue night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N83W to 11N106W. The ITCZ extends from 09N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 79W and 91W, from 06N to 16N between 99W and 126W and from 04N to 10N between 131W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. A ridge continues to dominate the Baja California offshore waters. This is producing gentle to moderate winds across the Baja California offshores with seas 4 to 7 ft. Scattered thunderstorms continue off the coast of Baja California Sur. Overnight scatterometer data depicts an area of moderate to fresh wind occurring south of Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, including the Gulf of California. Seas range 4 to 6 ft within mixed swell, and seas are up to 3 ft in the Gulf. For the forecast, the gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region will end later this morning. The associated rough seas will continue to propagate over the waters off eastern Oaxaca and western Chiapas today into Tue. The winds and seas will gradually diminish through Tue night off southern Mexico. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front will approach Baja California Norte on Tue followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds and moderate to rough seas. These marine conditions will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed, and north of Cabo San Lazaro later on Wed. High pressure situated over the Great Basin of the United States will bring fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Wed through Fri with seas building 4 to 6 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore waters S of 08N while mainly light to gentle winds are noted N of 08N. Seas range 6 to 8 ft across the offshore waters of Guatemala W of 95W due to the Tehuantepec gap wind event. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are observed elsewhere across the waters. NW swell is noted across the Central American offshore waters from Guatemala through Costa Rica, and mostly S swell east of Costa Rica and across the South American offshore waters. Strong thunderstorms are currently moving off the El Salvador and Nicaragua coastlines into the offshore waters. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted across Costa Rica, Panama and the Colombian offshore waters. For the forecast, the moderate to rough seas off Guatemala due to swell generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected to subside this morning. Winds will pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night through Thu morning. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas in primarily in SW swell will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar is located near 11N115W with a central pressure of 1007 mb. Fresh to strong winds are still likely occurring north of the low with seas to 10 ft. The low will continue moving WNW through tonight then dissipate. Winds will begin to diminish today, becoming moderate by tonight as the system becomes a trough. Seas will subside below 8 ft by Tue. Meanwhile, a cold front extends across the NW waters from 30N131W to 26N140W. Gentle to moderate N winds are noted behind the front with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, a ridge extends across the region north of 19N and W of 113W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ supports an area of moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 21N and W of 120W. Seas are to 8 to 9 ft within these winds. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas to 8 ft within mixed swell. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from 30N126W to 25N140W by tonight, and begin to weaken as it approaches Baja California Norte on Tue morning. A new swell event will follow the front building seas of up to 11 ft by this afternoon. The swell noted around the fresh winds north of the ITCZ will also persist through the next few days. As the front moves to the southeast, a large area of 8 to 9 ft seas will dominate most of the waters N of 07N W of 115W by Wed morning as it merges with the swell along the trade wind zone. Strong high pressure will follow the front, bringing an increase in the trade wind flow Mon night through at least Thu. Southerly swell will move into the southern waters by Tue night and continue propagating north through the end of the week. The swell will reach as far north as 02N and bringing seas 8 to 9 ft. $$ AReinhart