000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Nov 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pilar is centered near 10.6N 114.3W at 05/2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The center of Pilar is totally exposed, and it is located within about 150 nm of an ongoing cluster of deep convection that covers the area from 10N to 13N between 110W and 112W. Peak seas are currently around 16 ft. Pilar is moving toward the west. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and on Monday, with a northwestward motion continuing through midweek. Additional weakening is forecast. Pilar could degenerate into a remnant low as early as tonight or on Monday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Pilar NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge, across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, continues to support minimal gale force northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region with maximum seas of 14 ft. Seas generated from this gap wind event are propagating well away from the Gulf of Tehunatepec, with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 09N95W based on an altimeter pass. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by late Mon morning, but fresh to strong gap winds and moderate to rough seas will persist until Tue morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N95W to 08N107W, then continues SW of T.S. Pilar from 08N116W to 06N125W. The ITCZ extends from 06N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 10N to 13N between 87W and 90W, from 10N to 13N between 100W and 102W, and near 08N106W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. gentle to moderate northerly winds are evident evident in the Gulf of California, with 1 to 3 ft seas, except 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds are noted across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, the gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region are expected to persist into early Mon morning. Associated rough seas will continue to propagate over the waters off eastern Oaxaca and western Chiapas into Mon. The winds and seas will continue to gradually diminish into Tue off southern Mexico. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front will approach Baja California Norte on Tue followed by fresh NW to N winds and moderate to rough seas. These marine conditions will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed. Seas are forecast to propagate across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro later on Wed. At the same time, high pressure situated over the Great Basin of the United States will bring moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of California Wed through Fri, particularly over the N part of the Gulf. Seas are forecast to build to 4 to 6 ft within these winds. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore waters S of 06N while mainly light to gentle winds are noted N of 06N, with the exception of gentle to moderate E winds in the Papagayo region. Seas range 8 to 9 ft across the offshore waters of Guatemala W of 93W due to the Tehuantepec gap wind event. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are observed elsewhere. For the forecast, expect large seas off Guatemala through tonight due to swell generated in the Tehuantepec region by gale force winds. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar. A ridge extends across the region north of 15N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to locally strong winds 09N to 15N W of 138W. Seas are to 8 ft within these winds. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, moderate to fresh winds dominate most of the waters between 10N and 20N while gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 20N. Seas are of 4 to 7 ft based on altimeter data. A cold front has entered the NW corner of the area and runs from 30N135W to 28N140W. Light to locally moderate winds are on either side of the front. For the forecast, Pilar will move to 11.1N 115.3W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 11.7N 116.2W Mon afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 12.5N 117.2W Tue morning, 13.7N 118.3W Tue afternoon, 15.0N 119.3W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, the above mentioned cold front will be reinforcing by tonight. The front will reach from 30N130W to 25N140W by Mon morning, and begin to weaken as it approaches Baja California Norte on Tue morning. A new swell event will follow the front building seas of up to 11 ft on Mon. As the front moves SE a large area of 8 to 9 ft seas will dominate most of the waters N of 20N W of 115W by Wed morning. Strong high pressure will follow the front bringing an increase in the trade wind flow Mon night through at least Wed. $$ GR