000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022152 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Nov 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pilar is centered near 11.6N 96.9W at 02/2100 UTC, moving west at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 21 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 94W and 98W. Pilar is expected to move west around the same pace during the next day or two. After that time, a slower motion to the west or west- northwest is predicted. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Pilar NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The latest scatterometer from this morning depicted gale force N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as far south as 14N. Peak seas are around 14 ft. These winds are due to a very tight pressure gradient across the region in the wake of a cold front NE of the area. Gales are expected to persist through Sun. Very large and dangerous seas of 10-14 ft will merge with swells generated by Pilar located SE of the area and moving across the outer portion of the Tehuantepec offshore zone. This is resulting in confused and hazardous seas where they interact. Please read the latest NHC High Seas forecast at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: A disturbance (Invest 97L) is currently in the central Caribbean Sea. Plenty of tropical moisture and an unstable atmosphere is forecast to produce heavy rains Friday through the weekend across Central America. This rainfall is likely to result in flash flooding and possible landslides. Please refer to the local weather services for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends S of Pilar near 06N95W to Invest EP93 13N117W 1007 mb to 09N126W. The ITCZ continues from 09N126W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 14N between 76W and 106W, from 08N to 17N between 114W and 127W and from 04N to 10N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar and the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Outside of those two events, surface ridging extends across the Baja California offshore waters anchored by a 1021 mb high pres near 32N129W. The pressure gradient from this high pres and lower pressure over Mexico is leading to moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the Gulf of California, which is depicted by scatterometer data from earlier. Seas are up to 4 ft in the Gulf. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 4-5 ft in mixed NW and S swell. For the forecast, other than the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning, Pilar will move to 10.9N 99.4W Fri morning, 10.4N 102.6W Fri afternoon, 10.3N 105.5W Sat morning, 10.5N 108.1W Sat afternoon, 10.7N 110.5W Sun morning, and 11.2N 112.3W Sun afternoon. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves near 12.3N 114.9W by Mon afternoon. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of California will diminish by the end of the weekend. NW-N winds may increase to fresh to strong offshore Baja California Norte early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar. Aside from Pilar, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore waters with seas 5 to 7 ft. Seas range 8 to 10 ft ft across the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala near Pilar, W of 93W. Seas along the Central American offshore waters are in mixed swell, while the South American offshore waters are within S swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across the waters from Costa Rica southeastward to southern Colombia as described above. For the forecast, Pilar will move to 10.9N 99.4W Fri morning, 10.4N 102.6W Fri afternoon, 10.3N 105.5W Sat morning, 10.5N 108.1W Sat afternoon, 10.7N 110.5W Sun morning, and 11.2N 112.3W Sun afternoon. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves near 12.3N 114.9W by Mon afternoon. In addition to high and confused seas interacting between Pilar and seas generated across Tehuantepec, large and dangerous surf will continue along the coastlines of El Salvador and Guatemala through Fri. Seas around 8 ft will persist due to the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event along the far western offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun morning. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds will prevail through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar. Invest EP93 is centered near 13N117W with associated convection as described above with a central pressure of 1007 mb. Scatterometer winds are 15 to 20kt with locally 25 kt, and seas of 5-6 ft. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high pressure prevails N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ near 32N129W. Scatterometer showed winds are moderate to fresh from the ITCZ to 17N. Light to gentle winds are noted N of 17N and W of W of 120W. Winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough are moderate to locally fresh. Seas are 4-6 across the remainder of the open waters, locally 7 ft across the trade wind zone of locally fresh winds. For the forecast, Pilar will move to 10.9N 99.4W Fri morning, 10.4N 102.6W Fri afternoon, 10.3N 105.5W Sat morning, 10.5N 108.1W Sat afternoon, 10.7N 110.5W Sun morning, and 11.2N 112.3W Sun afternoon. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves near 12.3N 114.9W by Mon afternoon. Meanwhile, some slight development of Invest EP93 is possible today while it moves slowly northwestward over the central portion of the eastern Pacific basin. By Friday, upper- level winds are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for further development. There is a low chance of development for this system in 48 hours and 7 days. Mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and around EP93 through early next week. Seas will be mainly 5-7 ft through the next several days, locally to 8 ft across the trade wind zone. A weak cold front is expected to push across the NW portion of the forecast waters which is expected to bring seas 8 to 9 ft by early next week. $$ AReinhart