000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020839 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Nov 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0620 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pilar is centered near 12.3N 94.1W at 02/0900 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 17 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the W quadrant of Pilar. A turn toward the west-southwest with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a westward motion on Saturday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Pilar NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm force N winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the remainder of the overnight hours but are forecast to diminish to strong gale force around sunrise today or shortly thereafter. These winds are due to a very tight pressure gradient across the region in the wake of a cold front NE of the area. Gales will then continue for the remainder of today through early Sun. Continued very large and dangerous seas of 12-23 ft will merge with swells generated by Pilar located just SE of the area and approaching the Tehuantepec offshore zone early this morning, resulting in confused and hazardous seas where they interact. Please read the latest NHC High Seas forecast at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from SW of Pilar near 10N98W to low pressure, Invest EP93, near 12.5N116W to 09N121W. The ITCZ extends from 09N121W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 81W, from 04N to 11N between 80W and 90W, from 11N to 15N between 113W and 117W, from 09N to 12N between 120W and 123W, and from 07N to 09N between 131W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar, and on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning. A moderate pressure gradient continues over the Gulf of California region, producing moderate to fresh NW-N winds. Seas are 3-5 ft across the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the open waters away from the Tehuantepec region, along with 4-5 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, other than the Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning, Pilar will move to 11.5N 96.3W this afternoon, 10.6N 9.5W Fri morning, 10.0N 102.7W Fri afternoon, 9.9N 105.7W Sat morning, 10.0N 108.2W Sat afternoon, and 10.3N 110.3W Sun morning. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves to 11.3N 113.9W early Mon. As Pilar moves into this area gales occurring downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec may briefly spread all the way to the NW quadrant of Pilar. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of California will diminish through the end of the week. NW-N winds may increase to fresh to strong offshore Baja California Norte early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar. Aside from Pilar, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore waters, except offshore winds N of the Papagayo region, with seas of 4-7 ft across the offshore waters away from Pilar. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across the waters from Costa Rica southeastward as described above. For the forecast, Pilar will move to 11.5N 96.3W this afternoon, 10.6N 99.5W Fri morning, 10.0N 102.7W Fri afternoon, 9.9N 105.7W Sat morning, 10.0N 108.2W Sat afternoon, and 10.3N 110.3W Sun morning. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves to 11.3N 113.9W early Mon.In addition to high and confused seas interacting between Pilar and seas generated across Tehuantepec, large and dangerous surf will continue along the coastlines of El Salvador and Guatemala through Fri. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds will prevail through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar. Invest EP93 at 1007 mb is centered near 12.5N116W with associated convection as described above. Associated winds are 20 kt to locally 25 kt, with seas of 5-6 ft. Otherwise, high pressure prevails N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Winds are moderate or weaker except locally fresh from 08N to 20N and W of 130W. Seas are 4-6 across the remainder of the open waters, locally 7 ft across the trade wind zone of locally fresh winds. For the forecast, Pilar will move to 11.5N 96.3W this afternoon, 10.6N 99.5W Fri morning, 10.0N 102.7W Fri afternoon, 9.9N 105.7W Sat morning, 10.0N 108.2W Sat afternoon, and 10.3N 110.3W Sun morning. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves to 11.3N 113.9W early Mon. Meanwhile, some additional development of Invest EP93 is possible on Thursday while it moves slowly northwestward over the central portion of the eastern Pacific basin. By Friday, upper- level winds are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for further development. Mainly moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh continuing across the central portion. Seas will be mainly 5-7 ft through the next several days, locally to 8 ft across the trade wind zone and also in the NW waters this weekend as a weak cold front dies just NW of the area. $$ Lewitsky