000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310254 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pilar is centered near 11.3N 90.9W at 31/0300 UTC, moving east-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 15N between 85W and 96W. Pilar is moving toward the east-northeast and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Pilar could be near the coast of El Salvador or Nicaragua Tuesday through early Wednesday, though the core of the system is expected to remain offshore. The storm is forecast to begin moving west- southwestward away from land by late Wednesday. Some strengthening is forecast, and Pilar could be near hurricane strength by late Tuesday. Weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday and continue through Thursday. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the Pacific coast of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through Wednesday. Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Pilar NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Gale force N winds are developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as high pressure surges down across eastern Mexico ahead of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will increase to strong gale Tue, then to minimal storm force Tue night through early Thu. Winds may fluctuate to just below storm force to minimal storm force at times, but the difference will be negligible.Gales will continue after that through Sat night. Very large and dangerous seas of 12-22 ft will build with these winds, and also mix with swells generated by Pilar SE-S of the area resulting in confused seas where they meet. Please read the latest NHC High Seas forecast at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from SW of Pilar near 09N98W to low pressure, EP93, near 10.5N118W to 05N130W. The ITCZ extends from 05N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted offshore Colombia to 83W, from 08N to 13N between 112W and 120W, and from 02N to 08N between 122W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar, and on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning. A cold front is moving through mainland Mexico and high pressure is surging down across the Rocky Mountain United States. A tight pressure gradient is supporting fresh to strong winds in the central and northern Gulf of California, with moderate to fresh winds in the southern Gulf of California. Seas are 5-8 ft in the central and northern Gulf, and 4-7 ft in the southern Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are in Sebastian Vizcaino Bay and near Punta Eugenia. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, other than the Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning, Pilar will move to 11.4N 90.3W Tue morning, 11.7N 89.7W Tue evening, 11.9N 90.1W Wed morning, 11.6N 91.1W Wed evening, 11.1N 92.9W Thu morning, and 10.5N 95.3W Thu evening. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves to 9.3N 100.4W late Fri. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds in the northern and central Gulf of California will diminish Wed while seas also subside. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar. Aside from Pilar, mainly moderate S-SW winds are across the offshore waters with seas of 5-7 ft, except 4-6 ft offshore Colombia. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are across the waters from Colombia northwestward as described above. For the forecast, Pilar will move to 11.4N 90.3W Tue morning, 11.7N 89.7W Tue evening, 11.9N 90.1W Wed morning, 11.6N 91.1W Wed evening, 11.1N 92.9W Thu morning, and 10.5N 95.3W Thu evening. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves to 9.3N 100.4W late Fri. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the forecast period, except becoming fresh to strong in the Gulf of Panama Thu night into Fri. A storm force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will generate and send very large and dangerous seas offshore Guatemala Tue through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar. High pressure located N of the area extends a ridge across the waters N of the monsoon trough. Fresh winds are noted in the SE side of 1008 mb low pressure, Invest EP93, which is near 10.5N118W. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere across the open waters, along with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast, Pilar will move to 11.4N 90.3W Tue morning, 11.7N 89.7W Tue evening, 11.9N 90.1W Wed morning, 11.6N 91.1W Wed evening, 11.1N 92.9W Thu morning, and 10.5N 95.3W Thu evening. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves to 9.3N 100.4W late Fri. Meanwhile, Invest EP93 has not become any better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while the low drifts generally northeastward. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing to moderate to fresh from 09N to 21N W of 110W by the end of the week into the weekend. which may build seas to around 8 ft in that area. Little change in seas is forecast elsewhere. $$ Lewitsky