502 AXPZ20 KNHC 290837 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 11.0N 93.1W at 29/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 91W and 95W. The system is forecast to begin moving northeastward by tonight, and it could be near the coast of El Salvador or Guatemala on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the system could be near hurricane strength in a couple of days. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador, through Wednesday. Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach portions of the Pacific coast of Central America on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Nineteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of California Gale Warning: Deep high pressure over the northern Rocky Mountains and the Southwestern United States is forecast to result in a tight pressure gradient. A local climatology diagnostic tool indicates the probability of gale force winds in the northern Gulf of California to be in the 50-100 percentile which is also supported by other deterministic and probabilistic model guidance. A gale warning is now in effect for the northern Gulf of California from 12-00 UTC today. Seas are forecast to build to 8-11 ft in the northern Gulf of California as a result. Afterwards, fresh to strong northerly winds will persist across the northern and central Gulf of California through early Wed. Please read the latest NHC High Seas forecast at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong N winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to a locally tight pressure gradient. A strong cold front is forecast to move through the western Gulf of Mexico early Tue through Wed, and high pressure will surge out ahead of the front resulting in gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Mon evening. Winds are forecast to reach strong gale Tue night through Wed and trends will need to be monitored in case minimal storm force winds materialize. Seas will build to 12-20 ft across a large area downwind of the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec during the strongest winds. Gale force winds will persist through the remainder of the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas forecast at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Nicaragua at 11.5N86W to 12.5N90W, then resumes WSW of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E near 09N99W to low pressure, EP93, near 08N119W to 06N125W to 07N136W to low pressure near 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 77W and 85W, from 03N to 05N between 81W and 88W, from 04N to 08N between 90W and 110W, and from 04N to 08N between 129W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, a Gulf of California Gale Warning, and on a Gulf of California Gale Warning. Elsewhere, fresh to strong N winds and seas to 7 ft are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region due to a locally tight pressure gradient. A ridge extends southeastward from 1024 mb high pressure near 30N133W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are offshore Baja California Norte with seas of 6-9 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate W-NW winds prevail elsewhere across the open Mexican offshore waters where seas remain in the 4-6 ft range. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, other than the Gulf of California Gale Warning and the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning, Nineteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 11.3N 93.0W this afternoon, move to 11.6N 92.7W Mon morning, 11.9N 91.9W Mon afternoon, 12.4N 91.1W Tue morning, 12.7N 90.2W Tue afternoon, and 12.3N 90.3W Wed morning. Nineteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves to 11.0N 92.6W early Thu. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail west of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro through this evening. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. NW swell of 7-9 ft offshore Baja California Norte will subside today and tonight, with mainly 4-6 ft seas expected across the remainder of the open waters through the forecast period. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. Aside from Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, mainly moderate S-SW winds are across the offshore waters with seas of 5-7 ft. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are across the nearshore waters from Colombia and Panama northwestward. For the forecast, Nineteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 11.3N 93.0W this afternoon, move to 11.6N 92.7W Mon morning, 11.9N 91.9W Mon afternoon, 12.4N 91.1W Tue morning, 12.7N 90.2W Tue afternoon, and 12.3N 90.3W Wed morning. Nineteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves to 11.0N 92.6W early Thu. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a strong gale force Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event may send very large and dangerous seas offshore Guatemala Tue through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. High pressure of 1024 mb is located near 30N133W and prevails across the waters N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted from 10N to 22N and W of 120W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, along with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft prevail across the remainder of the waters, except to 8 ft in the far NE portion where winds are locally fresh. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure, Invest EP93, located more than 1000 nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 08N118.5W is producing disorganized shower activity. For the forecast, Nineteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 11.3N 93.0W this afternoon, move to 11.6N 92.7W Mon morning, 11.9N 91.9W Mon afternoon, 12.4N 91.1W Tue morning, 12.7N 90.2W Tue afternoon, and 12.3N 90.3W Wed morning. Nineteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves to 11.0N 92.6W early Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and seas to 8 ft will persist in the trade wind region west of 130W through the remainder of the weekend into the early part of the work week. Fresh N winds and seas around 8 ft in the NE portion of the basin will persist through today. Meanwhile, environmental conditions are marginally conducive for slow development of EP93 through the middle of the week while the low drifts slowly northeastward. $$ Lewitsky