000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Former Invest EP92 has become Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, which is centered near 10.5N 92.7W at 28/2100 UTC, moving north at 0 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 9 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 14N between 90W and 100W. The depression is stationary, and little motion is anticipated this weekend. The system is forecast to move northeastward by Monday, and could be approaching the coasts of El Salvador or Guatemala on Tuesday. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Nineteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough begins SW of TD-19E near 08N100W to 07N118W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 100W and 110W, from 05N to 09N between 115W and 121W and from 03N to 09N between 127W and 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on newly formed Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. Fresh to near gale force N winds and seas to 8 ft are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region due to a locally tight pressure gradient. A ridge extends southeastward from 1025 mb high pressure near 29N132W to SW of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are offshore Baja California Norte with seas to 7 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds prevail elsewhere across the Baja California Sur and SW Mexican offshore waters where seas remain in the 4-6 ft range. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail, higher near the entrance. For the forecast, Nineteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.7N 92.8W Sun morning, move to 10.9N 92.8W Sun afternoon, 11.1N 92.4W Mon morning, 11.6N 91.4W Mon afternoon, 12.3N 90.3W Tue morning, and 13.0N 89.5W Tue afternoon. Nineteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves near 11.3N 90.6W Wed afternoon. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail west of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro through Sun evening. Fresh to strong winds will develop over the northern half of the Gulf of California Sun through early Wed, with seas building to around 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through at least Fri, reaching gale force Mon night into Tue. Gale force winds may continue through the end of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on broad low pressure (EP92) located SE of the Tehuantepec region a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the coast of Guatemala near 11N93W. Aside from EP92, moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough with seas to 6 ft, except to 8 ft in the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. For the forecast, other than EP92, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail into early next week. Meanwhile, mixed swell will maintain seas in the 5-8 ft range through the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, a possible strong gale force Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event may send very large and building seas offshore Guatemala by the middle of next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted N of 10N to around 20N and W of 130W, along with 6-8 ft seas, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere and mainly 5-7 ft seas. Similar conditions are S of the monsoon trough. Meanwhile, a weak 1010 mb area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 07N118W is producing limited and disorganized shower activity. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 120 nm of the low. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and seas to 8 ft will persist in the trade wind region west of 130W through the weekend into early next week. Fresh N winds and seas around 8 ft in the NE portion of the basin will persist this weekend. Meanwhile, environmental conditions near the weak area of low pressure near 07N118W are forecast to be marginally conducive for slow development of the low through early next week while it drifts slowly northeastward. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the next several days, while seas will subside somewhat by early next week. $$ Ramos