000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Oct 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South of Central America and Mexico (EP92): A broad 1007 mb area
of low pressure located a couple of nautical hundred miles south
of the southern coast of El Salvador near 10.5N90W is producing 
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 89W
and 102W. Associated winds are currently 20-25 kt with seas of 
around 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form by this weekend while the low moves slowly northwestward 
to northward. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone 
development over the next 48 hours. For more details, please read
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Gulf of Papagayo near 11N86W
to 10N107W to 07N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 77W and 89W
and from 03N to 09N between 118W and 134W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
broad low pressure (EP92) located SE of the Tehuantepec region a
couple of hundred nautical miles S of the southern coast of El
Salvador.

A 1023 mb high pressure system centered near 34N129W, with 
associated ridge extending southwestward toward the Revillagigedo
Islands. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the open waters,
except fresh to strong well S-SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near
the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of
California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters 
off Mexico, and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, except 2-4 
ft in the southern Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will 
prevail west of Baja California through the weekend. Fresh to 
strong winds will develop over the northern half of the Gulf of 
California late this weekend into early next week. Fresh to 
strong winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight 
through early next week. NW swell will build seas to near 9 ft 
west of Baja California Norte this weekend. Looking ahead, the 
next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is possible 
starting next Tue morning. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
broad low pressure (EP92) located SE of the Tehuantepec region a
couple of hundred nautical miles S of the southern coast of El
Salvador.

Fresh to strong winds are noted south of EP92. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail over the waters south of Panama and offshore
Colombia N of 04N. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere.
Seas of 5-8 ft prevail, highest near EP92. 

For the forecast, other than EP92, moderate to fresh winds will
persist offshore Panama through the end of the week. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere into early next
week. Meanwhile, mixed swell will maintain seas in the 5-8 ft 
range through the weekend and into early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the waters N of 23N with light to
gentle winds and 5-6 ft seas in mixed swell. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough
is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds S of 23N to the N 
of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail elsewhere, including S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 
6-8 ft are noted over the remainder of the discussion waters. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds, and
seas to 8 ft, will persist in the trade wind region west of 120W
through the upcoming weekend. Fresh N winds and seas to 9 ft 
will develop in the northeast portion of the basin this weekend.
Meanwhile, a weak and elongated area of low pressure located 
well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula near 07N120W is producing limited shower 
activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally 
conducive for some slow development of this system during the 
next several days while it meanders over the southwestern portion
of the East Pacific basin with occasional fresh to strong winds.
Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the next
several days, while seas will subside somewhat across the waters 
by early next week.

$$
Lewitsky