000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261440
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Oct 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South of Central America and Mexico (EP92): A broad area of low 
pressure located a little over one hundred miles south of the 
southern coast of Central America is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be 
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by this weekend while the low moves 
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. There is a medium 
chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours,
and a high chance in the next seven days. For more details, 
please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to low pres (EP92) near 
10N89.5W to 13N99W to 07N111W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted from 02N to 13N E of 100W,
from 03N to 10N between 105W and 138W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure system centered near 28N134W, with
associated ridge extending southwestward toward the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of
the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light winds are elsewhere over the
open waters off Mexico as well as the Gulf of California. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-2
ft over the Gulf of California.  

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will 
prevail west of Baja California through the weekend. Fresh to 
strong winds will develop over the northern half of the Gulf of 
California late this weekend into early next week. Fresh to 
strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the 
weekend. NW swell will build seas to near 9 ft west of Baja 
California Norte this weekend. A broad area of low pressure 
located a little over one hundred miles south of the southern 
coast of Central America is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive 
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form by this weekend while the low moves slowly west- 
northwestward to northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
EP92 located off Central America.

Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail N of 07N and
W of 87W in association to EP92. Elsewhere, mainly moderate
winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure located a little 
over one hundred miles south of the southern coast of Central 
America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development 
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by 
this weekend while the low moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward. Winds will strengthen, and seas will build, over 
the northern zones in association with this area tonight. 
Elsewhere, mixed swell will maintain seas in the 6 to 7 ft range 
through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the waters N of 20N. Light to
gentle winds are over the far NW waters near the high pressure
center. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure
and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate winds N of the 
monsoon trough to near 20N and W of 110W. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted 
over the discussion waters. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds, and
seas to 8 ft, will persist in the trade wind region west of 120W
through early in the weekend. Elsewhere, fresh N winds and seas 
to 9 ft will develop in the northeast portion of the basin this 
weekend.

$$
AL