000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260921 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Invest 92E: Broad low pressure area of 1008 mb is located near 11N89W, or about 185 nm south of El Salvador. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are observed north of 02N and east of 97W. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the low moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. The chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours is medium. For more details, please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to a 1008 mb low pres (92E) near 11N89W to a 1010 mb low pres near 07N120W to another 1010 mb low pres near 05N135W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 08N and between 106W and 117W. Similar convection is noted from 02N to 08N and between 131W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure system of 1021 mb is centered near 28N135W and extends southwestward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate or weaker winds are prevalent in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh northerly winds are found in the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, with the strongest winds occurring south of Punta Eugenia to 24N and east of 116W. Wave heights are 5-7 ft in the offshore waters of Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present in the northern and southern Gulf of California, while mainly light winds and seas of 1-2 ft are found in the central portion of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft are occurring off SW Mexico. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh N winds and seas to 9 ft will develop west of Baja California starting Fri night and persist through the weekend. The same system will result in strong to near gale force N winds and seas 7-9 ft across the northern and central Gulf of California beginning early Sun and persisting into Wed. A Gulf of Tehuantepec fresh to strong gap wind event is likely to begin late tonight into Fri, persisting into the weekend. Looking ahead, Invest 92E currently offshore Central America has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days. It may approach the area to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please read the Special Features section for more details on Invest 92E located off Central America. The storm activity associated with Invest 92E is affecting most of the region, with the strongest convection occurring off Central America. Recent satellite-derived wind data show moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Localized stronger winds are likely near the strongest storms. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Invest 92E is a 1008 mb low pressure near 11N89W. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the low moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. The low will move little through Fri, then begin to move slowly WNW to NW over the weekend. Mixed swell will maintain seas in the 6 to 8 ft range across most of the waters through the rest of the week. However, seas of 8 to 10 ft will begin developing offshore Central America near 92E by late Thu. This area of rough seas will expand by Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The subtropical ridge located in the northwestern part of the basin continues to dominate the remainder of the area. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and the monsoon trough support moderate to fresh easterly winds from 09N to 25N and west of 115W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, fresh easterly winds and seas to 8 ft will persist in the trade region, especially west of 120W, through early in the weekend. Please see the Central America section above for information on Invest 92E. Elsewhere, fresh N winds and seas to 9 ft will develop in the northeast portion of the basin this Sat and continue into Sun. $$ DELGADO