000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Otis made landfall in Acapulco, Mexico during the night, at 25/0625 UTC, as a category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds estimated at 145 kt. Currently, as of 25/1500 UTC, Hurricane Otis is rapidly weakening inland over the high terrain of Mexico near 18.2N 100.6W, or about 85 nm NNW of Acapulco, moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas just offshore have subsided to 13 ft. Satellite imagery still shows that the core has recently rapidly dissipated. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is still occurring in a band within 75 nm of a line extending from 20N100W to 17N99W to 16N99.5W to 14N101W. A weather station in Coguca de Benitez, in the Mexican state of Guerrero, recorded 9 inches of rain in the past 24 hours from Otis. Otis will weaken to a tropical storm around midday today and move to near 19.4N 101.1W by early evening with a 35 kt intensity. Otis will dissipate tonight. Seas offshore are forecast to diminish below 12 ft by early afternoon, and to 8 ft by early evening. Swells along the southern coast of Mexico will gradually subside today. Please refer to the the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Otis NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 1008 mb low pressure near 11N90W to 13N94W. The 1008 mb low pressure near 11N90W has been designated Invest EP92. The monsoon trough resumes from 08N102W to 1010 mb low pressure near 07N120W to 1010 mb low pressure near 07N134W to 06N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection associated with EP92 extends from 05N to 14N between 86W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 04.5N to 07N between 102W and 114W. Similar convection is noted near the two low pressures that are farther west, from 03.5N to 08N between 118.5W and 123W, and from 03N to 06N between 131W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Hurricane Otis, which is rapidly weakening over the high terrain of Mexico. A subtropical ridge extends over the Mexico offshore waters, leading to gentle N winds to the west of Baja California. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell there. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf of California with 1 to 3 ft seas. From Cabo Corrientes to Acapulco, fresh to strong NW winds are present with seas of 6 to 9 ft. The exception is the area near where Otis recently made landfall, where strong to near gale force winds and seas of 9 to 13 ft may still be occurring from 16N to 18N between 99.5W and 102W. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, gentle WNW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, Otis will continue moving farther inland into Mexico and weaken to a tropical storm around midday today and move to near 19.4N 101.1W by early evening with a 35 kt intensity. Otis will dissipate tonight. Seas of 7 to 8 ft in long period northwest swell offshore central and northern Baja California will subside by late this afternoon. Looking ahead, fresh north winds along with renewed long period northwest swell may develop over the weekend to the west of Baja California. A cold front associated with this system will bring strong to near gale force N winds and seas 7 to 9 ft across the northern and central Gulf of California beginning early Sun. A Gulf of Tehuantepec fresh to strong gap wind event is likely to begin late Thu night into Fri, persisting into Sat, bringing strong N winds at times. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally gentle winds persist north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, mainly moderate south to southwest winds prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft across the waters. Invest EP92 is a 1008 mb low pressure near 11N90W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection associated with EP92 extends from 05N to 14N between 86W and 96W. For the forecast, environmental conditions should be conducive for development EP92, and a tropical depression will likely form late this week or this weekend while the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward. The chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours is low, but high within the next 7 days. Moderate southerly winds will continue across the South America and Galapagos Islands offshore waters today. Winds become moderate to fresh over the weekend. Westerly wind speeds are likely to increase to fresh to strong north of the Equator by early Thu into Fri as EP92 becomes better organized over the far eastern Pacific waters. Mixed swell will maintain seas in the 6-8 ft range across most of the waters through the rest of the week, except 8-10 ft seas will begin developing offshore Central America near EP92 by late Thu. This area of seas will expand by Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A north-south oriented surface ridge extends across the waters between 130W-140W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 33N133W. Gentle winds prevail across most of the area north of 22N. Moderate NE trades prevail between the monsoon trough and 22N. Moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough, except fresh between 100W and 120W. Moderate N swell with seas 7 to 8 ft prevail north of 24N between 118W and 130W. Across the southern part of the area, south of 06N between the Galapagos Islands and 120W, seas of 7 to 8 ft prevail in mixed swell. Elsewhere, seas are 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the swell over the NE part of the area will subside today. See the Central America section above for information on Invest EP92. $$ Hagen