000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242228 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 24 2023...Corrected Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Otis has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane near 15.3N 99.5W, or about 100 nm SSE of Acapulco, Mexico moving north- northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 24 ft. Numerous strong convection is seen within 120 nm of the center. A north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern Mexico by early Wed. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Otis is expected to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when the center reaches the coast. Otis is expected to produce heavy rainfall through Fri across Guerrero and western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by late tonight and on Wed. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning areas later today or this evening, and then spread northwestward within the warning areas through Wed. Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Otis NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 08N83W to 13N90W. It continues SW of Otis from 10N100W to 07N107W to 1008 mb low pres near 07N122W to 1008 mb low pres near 09N135W to 07N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 78W and 92W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Tropical Storm Otis. The area of winds over 20 kt and/or seas over 8 ft associated with Otis currently covers the waters from 13N to 17N between 97.5W and 101.5W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the west of the Baja California Peninsula and relatively broad lower pressure in northwest Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh northwest to north-northwest winds to the west of Baja California. Seas are 6-10 ft with these winds, in NW swell. Over the Gulf of California, moderate southwest to west winds are present along with seas of 2-4 ft. The remainder of the southwestern Mexican offshore waters outside of Otis are under generally gentle northwest winds and seas 5-6 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Hurricane Otis will strengthen to a category 4 hurricane with 120 kt winds late tonight near 16.5N100W, move inland to near 17.5N101W midday Wed, weaken to a tropical depression inland near 18.5N102W midday Thu, then dissipate Thu night. Elsewhere, fresh northwest winds across the Baja California offshore waters will diminish to moderate this afternoon. Seas of 8-10 ft in long-period northwest swell offshore central and northern Baja California will subside Wed. Looking ahead, fresh N winds along with renewed NW swell may develop over the weekend to the west of Baja California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally gentle winds persist north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, mainly moderate south to southwest winds prevail. Seas are 6-8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands in mixed southwest and northwest swell. Seas are 5-8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate southerly winds will continue across the South America and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through Wed. Westerly wind speeds are likely to increase to fresh to strong north of the Equator by early Thu into Fri as broad low pressure forms over the far eastern Pacific waters. Mixed swell will maintain seas in the 6-8 ft range across most of the waters through the rest of the week, except 8 to 10 ft near the aforementioned fresh westerly winds and broad low pressure. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A north-south oriented surface ridge extends across the waters between 130W-140W. The gradient resulting from this synoptic set-up is favorable in supporting mainly moderate anticyclonic winds between 130W-140W, and moderate to locally fresh north winds east of 130W and north of 25N. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Moderate northwest swell continues to propagate across most of the waters between 92W-120W. Seas are 8-9 ft due to long-period northwest swell west of the Galapagos Islands to 115W, mainly south of about 09N. For the forecast long-period northwest swell over the far NE part of the area is forecast to continue spreading seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 26N and east of 130W through late tonight before subsiding Wed. $$ Hagen