000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221629 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Norma is centered near 24.7N 109.6W at 22/1500 UTC, moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are around 24 ft. Scattered moderate convection are noted in the southern Gulf of California from 24N to 27N between 108W and 110W. A northeastward motion is expected to begin later this morning, followed by a turn toward the east- northeast later today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Norma is forecast to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico today and move inland within the tropical storm warning area tonight or early Monday. Little change in strength is forecast today, and Norma is expected to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a tropical storm. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Norma moves inland over mainland Mexico. Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Norma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Newly upgraded Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 9.9N 96.7W at 22/1500 UTC, moving north at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 94W and 102W. The depression will continue to move northward with a slight increase in forward speed through Tuesday, followed by a slow turn northwestward by Wednesday morning. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Eighteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 09N110W to low pres near 10N123W 1007 mb to 07N126W. The ITCZ extends from 07N126W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 104W and 130W and from 03N to 10N W of 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Tropical Storm Norma and Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the west of the Baja California Peninsula and Norma is supporting fresh to strong N to NW winds along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in mixed swell N of Cabo San Lazaro and 9 to 17 ft southward to the entrance of the Gulf of California and Jalisco offshore waters. In the Gulf of California N of 27N, gentle to moderate SE winds are ongoing along with seas to 3 ft. The remainder SW Mexican offshore waters have light to gentle variable winds prevailing and seas to 9 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Norma will move to 25.2N 109.1W this evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 25.7N 108.2W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. Meanwhile, Eighteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.2N 96.8W this evening, move to 10.8N 96.8W Mon morning, 11.8N 96.7W Mon evening, 12.8N 96.9W Tue morning, 13.4N 97.4W Tue evening, and 13.7N 97.7W Wed morning. Eighteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves to near 13.9N 98.1W early Thu. Elsewhere, strong winds will persist through Mon morning across the Baja California offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. NW swell across the Baja California offshores along with swells generated by Norma will continue to result in confused and hazardous seas at the entrance of the Gulf of California through today. This swell will subside by Mon. A new set of NW swell will enter the offshores of Baja California Norte N of Punta Eugenia Mon night and subside Wed morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. Outside of Eighteen-E, light to gentle winds persist north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S winds are noted. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters due to Eighteen-E. Seas are 6 to 8 ft west of the Galapagos Islands due to mostly NW swell. Otherwise, seas range 5 to 7 ft within NW and SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. For the forecast, Eighteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.2N 96.8W this evening, move to 10.8N 96.8W Mon morning, 11.8N 96.7W Mon evening, 12.8N 96.9W Tue morning, 13.4N 97.4W Tue evening, and 13.7N 97.7W Wed morning. Eighteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves to near 13.9N 98.1W early Thu. Winds will increase to locally fresh across the South America and Galapagos Islands offshore waters briefly on Mon. Mixed swell across most of the waters, bringing seas 6 to 8 ft, will continue through most of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Tropical Storm Norma and Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. Surface ridging extends across the northern forecast waters, N of 20N and W of 120W. This is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted. Large NW swell continues to propagate across most of the waters between 94W and 130W with 8 to 11 ft seas. For the forecast, Eighteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.2N 96.8W this evening, move to 10.8N 96.8W Mon morning, 11.8N 96.7W Mon evening, 12.8N 96.9W Tue morning, 13.4N 97.4W Tue evening, and 13.7N 97.7W Wed morning. Eighteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves to near 13.9N 98.1W early Thu. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will support mainly gentle to moderate winds across the open waters through today. Winds may increase moderate to fresh on Mon as high pressure builds N of the area and tightens the pressure gradient. Meanwhile, a new set of NW swell is forecast to spread S of 30N to the E of 130W by Mon, potentially building seas to 10 ft N of 26N. $$ AReinhart