000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150835
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Oct 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across 
the Gulf of Mexico, with high pressure building across eastern
Mexico in its wake. The pressure gradient between the area of
high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is 
supporting fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
The pressure gradient will continue to tighten today, with gale-
force winds expected by tonight into early Mon morning. Seas 
will peak near 15 ft Mon night, when winds peak near 40 kt, 
during this gale- force gap wind event. The area of high pressure
will start to shift eastward, loosening the pressure gradient, 
and diminishing winds below gale- force Tue night. The pressure 
gradient will remain tight enough to support fresh to strong 
winds through the remainder of next week. 

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N97W to 09N125W to 
10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 01N to 15N E of 104W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 05N to 10N between 130W and 140W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more in the
upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap wind event. 

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a ridge extends across the 
Baja California offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are in the 5 
to 7 ft across the the open waters off Mexico. Gentle to 
moderate winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will reach gale- force tonight, then diminish below 
gale- force Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will then continue 
over the Tehuantepec region through the remainder of the week. 
Rough seas can be expected over this area through the middle of 
next week. Gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California 
peninsula and over Gulf of California will continue through the 
middle of the week before diminishing.
 
Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms located southwest of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a weak trough of low 
pressure. This system is forecast to move slowly westward and an 
area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles 
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. 
Subsequent development of the system is likely, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form during the middle to latter part 
of the week while the system meanders well offshore of the coast 
of Mexico.. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system
a low chance of formation in 48 hours and a high chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are noted N of 09N in the Central American
offshore waters with seas 5 to 6 ft in S to SW swell. Gentle to 
moderate S winds are noted across the rest of the offshore waters
S of 05N. Seas range 6 to 7 ft across these waters in S swell. 

For the forecast, seas will increase Mon and Tue well offshore of 
Guatemala and El Salvador from swell generated from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale- force gap wind event. Light to gentle winds 
will prevail north of the monsoon trough through the beginning of
the week before increasing slightly. Gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail south of the monsoon trough. Long- period southerly 
swell will slowly subside across the area through the early part 
of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1020 mb centered near 32N124W extends a ridge 
SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail across most of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 
reaching 8 ft in NW swell over the NW waters. Elsewhere, seas are
in the 5-7 ft range. 

For the forecast, a reinforcing set of NW swell will move into 
the NW waters early today. This swell will propagate southward 
through the middle of next week. Looking ahead, a large set of NW
swell may move into the NW waters the middle of the week, with
seas peaking near 15 ft Wednesday. Seas greater than 8 ft
associated to this swell will cover much of the discussion waters
W of 110W by the end of the week.  

$$
AL