000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150232
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Oct 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across 
the Gulf of Mexico, with high pressure building across eastern
Mexico in its wake. The pressure gradient between the area of
high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough has
started to tighten, supporting fresh to strong gap winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient will continue to
tighten Sunday, with gale- force winds expected by Sun night 
into early Mon morning. Seas will peak near 16 ft Mon night, 
when winds peak near 40 kt, during this gale- force gap wind 
event. The area of high pressure will start to shift eastward, 
loosening the pressure gradient, and diminishing winds below 
gale- force Tue night. The pressure gradient will remain tight
enough to support fresh to strong winds through the remainder of
next week. 

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 13N96W to 08N125W to
10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 01N to 15N E of 102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 10N between 135W and 140W.  
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more in the
upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap wind event. 

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a ridge extends across the 
Baja California offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are in the 6-8
ft range off Baja California Sur in subsiding northwesterly 
swell. Elsewhere seas range 6 to 7 ft across the remainder of 
the open waters off Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 
2 to 4 ft are noted in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds have developed 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds in the Tehuantepec region 
will reach gale- force Sun night into early Mon before 
diminishing below gale- force by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds
will then continue through the remainder of the week. Rough seas
can be expected in the Tehuantepec region through the middle of 
next week. Elsewhere, northwesterly swell impacting the Baja 
California offshore waters will subside tonight. Gentle to 
moderate winds across the Baja California and Gulf of California 
will continue through the middle of next week before diminishing.
 
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form 
several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico 
in a few days. Subsequent development of the system is likely, 
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle 
to latter part of next week while the system meanders well 
offshore of the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather 
Outlook gives this system a low chance of formation in 48 hours 
and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are noted N of 08N in the Central American
offshore waters with seas 5 to 6 ft in S to SW swell. Gentle to 
moderate S winds are noted across the rest of the offshore waters
S of 05N. Seas range 6 to 7 ft across these waters in S swell. 

For the forecast, seas will increase Mon and Tue well offshore of 
Guatemala and El Salvador from swell generated from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Moderate winds will 
diminish across the South American offshore waters by Sun. Gentle
to locally moderate winds will prevail across the Central and 
South American waters through early next week. Long- period 
southerly swell will slowly subside across the area through Sun 
night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the NW waters. High pressure 
of 1018 mb centered near 29N126W extends a ridge SE to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across 
most of the discussion waters. Seas of 8-9 ft in subsiding NW
swell are noted from 14N to 20N between 112W and 120W. 
Elsewhere, seas are in the 5-7 ft range. 

For the forecast, the NW swell over the waters SW of Baja 
California Sur will subside tonight. Northwest swell over the NW 
waters will maintain seas of 8 to 9 ft over the far northwest 
waters through tonight, with a reinforcing set of NW swell moving
into the NW waters by Sun morning. This swell will propagate 
southward through the middle of next week.

$$
AL