000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure behind the front will support fresh to strong N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sun evening. Winds will increase to gale force by early Mon morning and persisting through Tue. Seas will build to 15 ft during this time. Winds will continue to be fresh to strong across the region through Wed night. Seas will drop below 12 ft by Tue night, and subside below 8 ft by Wed. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N101W to 10N120W to a 1010 mb low near 10N136W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 16N between 77W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N and E of 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the Baja California offshore waters. Light to gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range off the Baja California peninsula in subsiding northwesterly swell. Seas are in the 6 to 7 ft range across the southwestern and southern Mexico offshore waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 2 to 4 ft, are noted in the Gulf of California. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Oaxaca offshore waters. For the forecast, northwesterly swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters will subside today. Light to gentle winds across the Baja California and Gulf of California will prevail today before increasing slightly tonight into Sun. Gap winds will strengthen to strong across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Winds in the Tehuantepec region may reach gale- force by early Mon, then diminish below gale- force by Tue with fresh to strong winds continuing through midweek. Seas will be rough tonight through Wed. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of the week while meandering well offshore of the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of formation in 48 hours and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are noted N of 07N in the Central American offshore waters with seas 5 to 6 ft in S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the rest of the offshore waters S of 07N. Seas range 6 to 7 ft across these waters in S swell. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters today before diminishing Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail across the Central and South American waters through early next week. Long- period southerly swell will slowly subside across the area through Sun night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating cold front extends from 30N132W to 29N138W. The front has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas in the 8-9 ft range over the NW waters, N of 25N and W of 130W. High pressure of 1017 mb centered east of the front near 29N126W extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail across the discussion waters N of 25N, and gentle to moderate wind speeds S of 25N. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range N of 16N and E of 120W in subsiding NW swell. Elsewhere, seas are in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast, the NW swell over the NE portion of the discussion waters will subside today. The cold front will dissipate today. Northwest swell over the NW waters will maintain seas of 8 to 9 ft over the far northwest waters through tonight, with a reinforcing set of NW swell moving into the NW waters by Sun morning. This swell will propagate southward through the middle of next week. $$ AReinhart