000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131552
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Oct 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 14N100W to 11N120W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 89W and 98W,
from 06N to 11N between 114W and 129W and from 07N to 12N and W
of 137W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge continues to extend across the Baja California offshore 
waters. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds prevail across the 
offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds are noted in the
Gulf of California. Northwesterly swell is bringing 8-10 ft seas
across the Baja California offshore waters. Otherwise, seas 
range 6 to 7 ft across the southwestern and southern Mexico 
offshore waters. Seas range 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. 
Thunderstorms are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the 
Oaxaca offshore waters. Otherwise, benign conditions are seen 
across the rest of the region. 

For the forecast, northwesterly swell impacting the Baja 
California offshore waters will subside by Sat. Winds across the 
Baja California and Gulf of California offshore waters will 
continue to be light to gentle through Sat. Winds could become 
moderate once later this weekend. Fresh to strong gap winds will 
begin across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sun morning. Winds in 
the Tehuantepec region will possibly reach gale- force by early
Mon, then diminish below gale- force by Tue. The fresh to strong
winds will continue through midweek. 

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form 
several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico 
by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for at least gradual development after that, and
a tropical depression could form during the later portion of the
week while the system drifts slowly northward. The latest 
Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle W to SW winds prevail across the Central American 
offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S winds are noted in the
South American offshore waters. Southerly swell propagating 
across the discussion waters is producing 6-7 ft seas. Scattered
thunderstorms are also noted off the coast of Colombia and the
offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, winds are expected to increase to moderate to
locally fresh across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore 
waters by Sat, and across the Central American waters by Sun. 
Gentle to moderate winds will continue across these waters 
through early next week. Long- period southerly swell will slowly
subside across the area through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends across the northern waters. Mostly light to
gentle winds are noted N of the monsoon trough with seas 6 to 7
ft. Northwesterly swell is propagating in the NW waters, N of 19N
and E of 127W. Seas in this region are 8-10 ft. Meanwhile, gentle
to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 
ft in S to SW swell are noted S of the monsoon trough and E of 
115W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, the NW swell over the NE portion of the
discussion waters will subside by Sat. High pressure over the 
area will gradually shift eastward and weaken through Fri as a 
cold front enters the northwest part of the area while weakening.
Northwest swell will follow in behind this front, bringing seas 
of 8 to 9 ft to the far northwest waters from Fri through Sat 
night. Another cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W on Mon, 
bringing another set of NW swell to the area early next week. The
southerly swell impacting the waters west of the Galapagos 
Islands and south of the monsoon trough is expected to subside 
by this weekend.

$$
AReinhart