000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130231
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Oct 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 16N96W to 12N113W to
11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N
between 86W and 103W, from 07N to 11N between 105W and 120W, and
from 05N to 11N between 135W and 140W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the Baja California offshore waters. Gentle
to moderate NW winds prevail across the offshore waters off
Mexico, with locally fresh winds noted N of 27N west of Baja
California Norte. NW swell is propagating across the waters west
of Baja California, with seas in the 8-11 ft range. Seas are in
the 7-8 ft range over the Tehuantepec region in SW swell. Seas of
5-7 ft prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Light
to gentle winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are noted over the Gulf of
California. 

For the forecast, northwesterly swell impacting the Baja 
California offshore waters will subside by Sat. Winds across the 
Baja California and Gulf of California offshore waters will 
become light to gentle Fri and Sat. Winds could become moderate 
once again later in the weekend. By Sun, fresh to strong N to NE 
winds will begin across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and possibly 
becoming gale- force by Sun night. The gale-force winds will end 
by Tue. 

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form 
several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico 
during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter, some 
gradual development is possible while the system moves slowly 
northwestward.. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this 
system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle W to SW winds prevail across the Central and
South American offshore waters. Southerly swell is bringing 8 ft
seas across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, in
addition to parts of the Guatemala/El Salvador offshore waters.
Otherwise, seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. 

For the forecast, winds are expected to increase to moderate 
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters by Sat, 
and across the Central American waters by Sun. Gentle to moderate
winds will continue across these waters through early next week.
Long- period southerly swell will slowly subside across the area
through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends across the northern waters. Moderate to locally 
fresh winds are noted N of 25N and E of 125W. Northwesterly swell 
producing seas up to 11 ft across this area. Light to gentle 
winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft in S to SW
swell are noted S of the monsoon trough and E of 115W. Elsewhere,
seas of 5-7 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, the NW swell over the NE portion of the
discussion waters will subside this weekend. Meanwhile, high 
pressure over the area will gradually shift eastward and weaken 
through Fri as a cold front enters the northwest part of the area
while weakening. Northwest swell will follow in behind this 
front, bringing seas of 8 to 9 ft to the far northwest waters 
from Fri through Sat night. Another cold front is forecast to 
reach 30N140W on Mon, bringing another set of NW swell to the 
area early next week. The southerly swell impacting the waters 
west of the Galapagos Islands is expected to subside by this
weekend.

$$
AL